Personal Income in December 2013

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Personal Income and Outlays Released On 1/31/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Personal Income - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.4 % 0.0 % Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.4 % PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.2 % Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 % Personal Income - Yr/Yr change 2.3 % 2.3 % -0.8 % Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change 3.5 % 3.3 % 3.6 % PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.1 % Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.1 % 1.2 % Highlights Personal income was flat in December while spending was up. Income sluggishness may have been weather related. Personal income was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in November. Markets expected a 0.2 percent rise. The wages & salaries component posted flat in December, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Personal spending, however, was moderately strong, rising 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent boost in November. Spending was led by a 1.5 percent jump in nondurables with services gaining 0.4 percent. Durables declined 1.8 percent after a 1.8 percent increase the month before. The rise in personal consumption was not just price related. Real spending increased 0.2 percent in December after an increase of 0.6 percent in November. Headline inflation warmed a bit with a reading of 0.2 percent after no change in November. Excluding food and energy, PCE price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in December, matching the November pace. On a year ago basis, headline inflation was 1.1 percent in December versus 0.9 percent the month before. Core inflation nudged up to 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent. The year ago numbers are still well below the Fed's goal of 2 percent inflation. Overall, the consumer is still contributing to the recovery in terms of spending. However, on the income side it likely is a good idea to wait for January data to see how much of income sluggishness was weather related even though soft employment growth was a contributing factor. Market Consensus before announcement Personal income in November rebounded 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in October. But the important wages and salaries component improved to a 0.4 percent gain in November after rising 0.1 percent the month before. Tugging down on personal income was the proprietors' income category which fell 1.3 percent after a 1.7 percent boost in October. The swing was in the farm subcomponent. Spending also accelerated a bit, jumping 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent boost in October. No surprise, the latest gain was led by durables (largely motor vehicles) up 1.9 percent, following a 1.0 percent increase in October. Nondurables declined 0.4 percent after a 0.4 percent decrease in October. Lower gasoline prices likely played a role in November. Services jumped 0.6 in November, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. Inflation was non-existent. Headline inflation was unchanged on the month for both November and October. Core inflation rose 0.1 percent in each of the latest two months. On a year-ago basis, overall PCE price inflation posted at 0.9 percent in November, compared to 0.7 percent in October. Core inflation came in at 1.1 percent in both November and October. Definition Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care   Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Please note: Your browser must display iFrames to view the Interactive charts.