Friday, September 27, 2024

Economic impact of Hurricanes

Economic impact of hurricanes on your business Hurricanes can have a damaging economic impact on businesses, including physical damage, supply chain disruptions, and lost revenue. Learn how to better prepare.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/blogs-webinars/understanding-hurricanes-economic-impact-on-your-business/1678006


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 The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns Tatyana Deryugina Laura Kawano Steven Levitt AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: APPLIED ECONOMICS VOL. 10, NO. 2, APRIL 2018 (pp. 202–33)

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160307

Abstract Hurricane Katrina destroyed over 200,000 homes and led to massive economic and physical dislocation. Using a panel of tax return data, we provide one of the first comprehensive analyses of the hurricane's long-term economic impact on its victims. Hurricane Katrina had large and persistent impacts on where people live, but small and surprisingly transitory effects on employment and income. Within just a few years, Katrina victims' incomes actually surpass that of controls from similar unaffected cities. The strong economic performance of Hurricane Katrina victims is particularly remarkable given that the hurricane struck with essentially no warning.


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The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters1 Roth Tran, Brigitte and Wilson, Daniel J. 2 August 2024 Abstract We use nearly four decades of U.S. county data to study dynamic local economic impacts of natural disasters that trigger federal aid. We find these disasters on average raise personal income per capita in the longer run (8 years out). We also find that, in the longer run, wages and home prices are higher, while employment and population are unaffected, suggesting the income boost may reflect productivity increases and greater demand for housing in supply-constrained areas or compositional shifts. Allowing for heterogeneity across disaster types, we find the longer-run income boost is driven primarily by hurricanes and tornadoes. We also find the longer-run boost increases with damages, suggestive of an important role for insurance and government aid—which are highly correlated with damages—in fueling recovery. A spatial spillover analysis suggests the longer-run net effects of local aid-inducing disasters for wider regions are near-zero.

https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2020-34.pdf

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Historical Inflation and Unemployment

Historical U.S. Unemployment Rate by Year 

https://www.investopedia.com/historical-us-unemployment-rate-by-year-7495494

U.S. National Unemployment Rate  

https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-rate

Unemployment in the United States   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_in_the_United_States 

Chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_in_the_United_States#/media/File:United_States_unemployment_with_incarceration_1892-2016.png

Will Robots Automate Your Job Away? Full Employment, Basic Income, and Economic Democracy  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3044448

see page 10

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U.S. Inflation Rate by President: From Eisenhower to Biden   https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflation-rate-by-president-8546447 

Unpacking the Causes of Pandemic-Era Inflation in the US  https://www.nber.org/digest/20239/unpacking-causes-pandemic-era-inflation-us

What caused the U.S. pandemic-era inflation? Ben S. Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard June 13, 2023  

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-caused-the-u-s-pandemic-era-inflation/

"Fiscal policy contributed to the inflation, but primarily through its effects on consumer demand for commodities and goods in limited supply rather than through the labor market." 

"Bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target will require bringing the demand and supply of labor into better balance, with the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers closer to pre-pandemic levels."

Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2024  

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

  • 5.6%: 2017-2020
  • 16.2%: 2021-2024 (as of 20240917)

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Tracking Trumponomics in seven charts  

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-ECONOMY-TRUMP/01008133219/index.html


Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs June 26, 202419 min read By: Erica York   

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

== INFLATION VS WAGE GROWTH ==========

Difference between the inflation rate and growth of wages in the United States from August 2020 to August 2024  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

United States Inflation Rate (tradingeconomics.com)



CNBC: Here's the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart

Here's the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/cpi-deflation-august-2024.html

Monday, September 9, 2024

Biden vs Trump Economy

ABC News: Biden's vs. Trump's economy comparison  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diM0ROfBpT0

Washington Post Opinion  Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 charts Biden has delivered an impressive recovery, but many voters remember lower prices under Trump.   https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/18/trump-biden-economy-charts-compare/ 

Bankrate: Biden versus Trump’s economy: How the 2024 presidential candidates stack up on inflation, jobs and more  https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/biden-versus-trump-economy/

The Rematch The Trump and Biden Economies by the Numbers  https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/TRUMP-BIDEN-ECON/lgvdoowmkpo/

OPINION: Trump's record far superior to Biden's on debt and inflationOnly a Ph.D. in economics at an Ivy League school would believe that Biden policies will bring inflation and interest rates DOWN https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trumps-record-far-superior-bidens-debt-inflation

Wednesday, September 4, 2024

CNBC: Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening

Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/jolts-july-2024.html
JOLTS July 2024:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/jolts-july-2024.html

Economic news - CNNMoney.com