Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts

Saturday, January 20, 2018

CNN: Government Shutdown

About Government shutdown
http://mailchi.mp/cnn/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-government-shutdown?e=774909b1ac

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Budget battle's bite out of economy may cost billions

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101120605

Budget battle's bite out of economy may cost billions

   Text Size  
Published: Thursday, 17 Oct 2013 | 9:33 AM ET
By:  | CNBC.com Economics Reporter
Twitter
108
LinkedIn
7
Share
Big costs to economy from DC brinksmanship
Thursday, 17 Oct 2013 | 10:01 AM ET
Steve Liesman looks at how the budget battle and resulting government shutdown has hurt the U.S. economy.
If the goal of the government shutdown was to help taxpayers by curbing government spending and boosting the economy, supporters of the idea got it all wrong.
As the dust settles, economists are adding up the collateral damage. And the results aren't pretty.
The loss of government services during the three-week shutdown will take a roughly $3.1 billion bite out of gross domestic product, according to economists at IHS Global Insight.

Getty Images
The U.S. Capitol building is shown on the morning after a bipartisan bill was passed by the House and the Senate to reopened the government and raise the debt limit, on October 17, 2013 in Washington, DC
That represents the hit from lost government services. The shutdown also forced non-government business losses, temporary layoffs and other interruptions in business spending. The full extent of the damage won't be known for some time. Economists at Standard & Poor's estimate the total cost at about $24 billion, or a 0.6 percent GDP haircut. Others estimate about half that.
The loss in U.S. economic prestige is equally hard to gauge.
"The exact impact on the rest of the economy will be hard to measure until delayed economic data are released," according to the note from IHS economists Doug Handler and Paul Edelstein.
But they estimate the economy will grow at just a 1.6 percent annual rate in the last three months of the year—less than the 2.2 percent they had expected if the government had stayed open.
Those tens of billions of dollars of lost economic activity (along with a shortfall in government taxes on that activity) were obliterated by a political standoff that produced little more than an agreement to try again to reach a long-term agreement in three months.
The deal amounts to a three-month cooling off period, temporarily ending the insanity that descended on Washington three weeks ago, froze the government's budget authority Oct. 1 and threatened to force the Treasury to default on $12 billion in public debt.
Sen. McCain: Republicans 'punished' most by shutdown
What has been done to the civilian sector...is so harmful, says Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ), discussing the impact of the government shutdown on American citizens as well as both political parties. Sen. McCain also shares his thoughts on how Congress can likely reach a compromise on the budget.
The agreement approved Wednesday restores budget authority until January 15 at current spending levels, including back pay for furloughed government workers, and extends Treasury's borrowing authority until February 7.
It also releases the government from the hostage crisis that began with sweeping demands from House Republicans aimed at "defunding" the administration's health care law, President Barack Obama's signature domestic program, which began enrolling uninsured Americans on Oct. 1.
The only concession in the final deal was an agreement to verify the incomes of people signing up for health plans and looking for government subsidies to help pay the premium. A tax on medical devices—once high on the list of House GOP demands—remains unchanged.
The overall damage would have been much greater if the debt limit had been breached. That would have stopped a large chunk of government spending that continued flowing through the economy.
Government spending on Medicare and Social Security, nearly half of total government spending, was not affected because those checks are paid by trust funds that aren't subject to the annual budget process. Same for the roughly 7 percent of spending that goes to pay interest on the national debt.
Military servicemen and women continued to get paid, but civilian contractors were furloughed. That lost spending amounted to about three-tenths of a percent of annual GDP.
Some orders for government supplies were put on hold. But those orders will have to be made up later, so there was likely little lost production during the past two weeks.
"For a brief shutdown, it seems unlikely that contracted production of defense-related goods (mostly weapons systems, munitions, and petroleum) would be even temporarily curtailed," wrote economists at Macroeconomic Advisors.
While some deferred business will be made up in the weeks and months ahead, other losses are permanent.
Businesses catering to tourists visiting national parks, for example, can't make up the revenue on lost hotel bookings. Recreation in national parks, wildlife refuges, forests, marine sanctuaries, and other federally managed lands and waters contributed more than 600,000 jobs to the economy in 2010.
Realtors are reporting that some home sales are being canceled because of delays in mortgage approvals. That's because lenders couldn't confirm income tax returns and Social Security data. Furloughs at the Federal Housing Administration produced a backlog in loan processing for first-time homebuyers.
For those who had sold their old house or moved out of an apartment, that delay meant a surprise out-of-pocket cost to find alternate housing. (On the other side of the ledger, the hotel or temporary landlord made an extra month's rent.)
Most commentators observed that the stock market "remained relatively calm" throughout the two-week Congressional break with reality, but many individual investors weren't as assured. In the first week after the shutdown, the net value of market losses came to more than $400 billion. The market then staged a rally that added back more than $800 billion in net value. If you didn't panic, you came out ahead. If you sold into that trough, you lost money.
Longer-term damage is the toughest to estimate.
With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumer sentiment fell this month to its weakest level in nine months, according to the widely watched survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The drop was driven by a gloomier outlook about the economy – which typically prompts consumers to tighten up on their spending.
"The ongoing government shutdown was a significant factor in this decline, and unfavorable references to government economic policy were mentioned spontaneously by 35 percent of consumers, a new all-time high," according to economists at Barclays.
Consumers are also more worried about their job prospects.
While the deal struck Wednesday allowed the government to avoid an outright default on its debts, the political spectacle also horrified government and business leaders around the world. The hard cost of the loss of confidence won't be known for months or years. To the extent it discourages investments, it will hamper the already weak recovery.
A lot depends on whether the three-month extension produces a resolution to the underlying political standoff. If no agreement is reached the next time the debt ceiling approaches, confidence will fall further.
"The U.S.'s prestige in global financial markets and world capitals will continue to deteriorate if we lurch from crisis to crisis," said the IHS economists.
By CNBC's John Schoen. Follow him on Twitter 
.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Q&A: What is the US debt ceiling?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24365018


Q&A: What is the US debt ceiling?

Dollar bills A US default would undermine confidence in the dollar
The debt ceiling is a cap on the total amount the US government can borrow, set by US lawmakers.
The current debt limit of $16.699 trillion was reached in May. Since then the US Treasury has been using what are called extraordinary measures to keep paying the bills.
Why does the US government need to borrow so much?
If you compare borrowing to the size of the US economy, it has been increasing since the 1980s.
But the 2007 financial crisis created huge gaps between government income and expenditure.
The economy was plunged into a deep recession and federal finances deteriorated dramatically as the government attempted to boost the economy and stabilise the financial sector.
As a result the debt ceiling was raised twice in the second half of 2008 and twice in 2009.
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), US debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is now 73%, twice as much as it was at the end of 2007.
debt graphic
Why can't the president raise the limit?
He doesn't have that power.
The limits are set by lawmakers in Congress, which is made up of two houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
They set in law how much the Treasury department can borrow.
How often has the limit been raised?
Since March 1962, Congress has enacted 77 separate measures that have altered the limit on federal debt.
Until recently those changes have been achieved without a lot of fuss.
Why has it become such a big issue?
Since the Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans in 2010, budget fighting between the two parties has become commonplace.
Republicans took their victory in the mid-term elections as a sign that Americans had rejected the president's Democratic agenda, and more specifically, that Americans were unhappy with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare" as Republicans label it.
Although past budget fights have included larger questions about the size and scope of the US government, this one is very specifically about Mr Obama's healthcare law, substantial parts of which took effect on 1 October.
Republicans have been doing everything in their power to force Mr Obama to delay implementation of a law they strongly believe was rejected by the American public.
Democrats argue the law was validated by the Supreme Court in June 2012 and was a central issue in the 2012 presidential election, which Mr Obama won decisively.
It seems a messy way to run the nation's finances.
Part of the problem is that Congress approves spending separately from the debt ceiling.
So politicians can agree to all sorts of expenditure without necessarily having the financing in place to pay for it.
In good years that does not matter too much as government income is greater that expenditure.
But historically those have been rare.
Usually the Treasury has to cover the gap between income and expenditure, by borrowing on the international money markets.
When does the money run out?
The government has been juggling its debts to keep paying the bills, but those measures will run out between 22 October and the end of the month, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
What happens then?
The government could make drastic cuts in federal spending or try to raise taxes, or possibly even both.
That would be difficult and, perhaps, not enough.
During the previous row over the debt ceiling in 2011, then Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner warned that the US government's obligations are so great "immediate cuts in spending or tax increases cannot make the necessary cash available".
So what does that mean?
The big worry is that the US government may have to stop paying back its debts, which is known as a default.
Traditionally the US has been able to borrow at low interest rates on the international markets, which has helped keep interest rates low for consumers.
But a default could damage confidence and drive up the cost of borrowing for Americans.
A default could also create a chaotic situation on the international market for debt.
Investors would not want to accept bonds that were no longer being honoured.
But the market is not set up to deal with rejected bonds, so there could be a period of confusion for traders.
What would it mean for the rest of the world?
A default would send a shock through the financial markets.
US bonds, known as treasuries, have always been seen as a safe investment and trillions of dollars are invested in them.
Analysts say it is hard to know what would happen and a lot would depend on how long the default lasts.
Investors may be prepared to wait out a short disruption.
But a lengthy default might see money switch into other perceived havens, such as German and Swiss debt.
There might also be a rush into gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe investment.
Are there any other options?
The president could ignore the debt ceiling.
He would be breaking the law and could be impeached.
But if the alternative is to cut funding for doctors, schools and agencies such as the FBI, he might decide it is the least bad option.

Economic news - CNNMoney.com