Recent History Of This Indicator
Real GDP is expected to be revised higher to plus 3.2 percent in the second estimate from an initial estimate of 2.3 percent. The revision is expected to reflect upward revisions to retail sales and a large build in June business inventories.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2015 Release Schedule

Released On:

Release For:

Q4a:2014

Q4p:2014

Q4f:2014

Q1a:2015

Q1p:2015

Q1f:2015

Q2a:2015

Q2p:2015

Q2f:2015

Q3a:2015

Q3p:2015

Q3f:2015

A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

GDP revision

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461149&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

GDP

Released On 12/23/2014 8:30:00 AM For Q3f:2014

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	3.9 %	3.9 %	4.3 %	4.0 % to 4.5 %	5.0 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.4 %	1.4 %	1.4 %	1.4 % to 1.4 %	1.4 %

Highlights
Third-quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to plus 5.0 percent for the strongest rate since way back in third-quarter 2003. Today's second revision, up 1.1 percentage points from the first revision and compared to plus 4.6 percent for the second quarter, reflects gains for health care, recreation, financial services, and software. Final sales were also revised sharply higher, to plus 5.0 vs a prior reading of 4.1 percent. GDP prices remain soft at plus 1.4 percent in a reading that is likely to ebb further given this quarter's drop in oil prices. Today's results point to unexpectedly strong economic momentum going into the current quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP grew 3.9 percent in the third quarter versus the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. Growth still decelerated from the second quarter weather rebound of 4.6 percent annualized. With the second estimate for the third quarter, private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated, and both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more. In contrast, exports increased less than previously estimated. On the price front, the chain-weighted price index was revised up marginally to 1.4 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 1.3 percent annualized from 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The core chain index, excluding food and energy, eased to 1.7 percent but was slightly higher than the initial estimate of 1.6 percent.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Economic data website from Federal Reserve

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

Data for North Carolina:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/27315

Maps:
Average Hourly Earnings in Private Sector:
http://geofred.stlouisfed.org/map/?th=pubugn&cc=5&rc=false&im=fractile&lng=-90&lat=40&zm=4&sl&sv&dth=0a623eb20a3109cabfd9c50b367d2558&rt=state&undefined&at=Not%20Seasonally%20Adjusted,%20Annual,%20Dollars%20per%20Hour&fq=Annual&am=Average&un=lin&dt=2013-01-01

Friday, October 3, 2014

Presidents and economic performance

http://www.fool.com/ecap/the_motley_fool/the-best-presidents-for-oo/?partner=outbrain&waid=7232&wsource=esaoutprm0860046

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

GDP

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461146&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

2014 Economic Calendar

U.S. & Intl Recaps | Event Definitions | Today's Calendar

GDP

Released On 9/26/2014 8:30:00 AM For Q2f:2014

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	4.2 %	4.6 %	4.3 % to 5.0 %	4.6 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	2.1 %	2.1 %	2.1 % to 2.2 %	2.1 %

Highlights
The final revision to second quarter GDP growth showed an upward revision to 4.6 percent from the prior estimate of 4.2 percent and compared to the first quarter decline of 2.1 percent. The revision matched expectations. Upward revisions primarily came from nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports.

Looking at growth rates (instead of the direction and degree of component revisions), strength for the second quarter was broad based in inventory investment, net exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential investment. Personal consumption also was healthy.

Chain-weighted prices advanced 2.1 percent annualized, equaling the prior estimate and forecasts and compared to the first quarter number of 1.3 percent.

The general picture of the second quarter has not changed. Second quarter strength to a notable degree was a rebound from the weather-related decline in the first quarter. This was especially true for inventories and construction components. Nonetheless, the quarter was moderately favorable. However, the rebound effect will show up little if at all in the third quarter and a more moderate number should be expected.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP growth for the second quarter was higher than expected. The second estimate for second quarter GDP growth came in at 4.2 percent annualized versus a 4.0 percent forecast and coming off a 2.1 percent weather related drop in the first quarter. With this second estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remained the same; the increase in nonresidential fixed investment was larger than previously estimated, while the increase in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated. Real final sales of domestic product-GDP less change in private inventories-increased 2.8 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the first. Real final sales to domestic purchasers gained 3.1 percent versus 0.7 in the first quarter. Chain-weighted prices gained 2.1 percent annualized, compared to the consensus for 2.0 percent and the first quarter number of 1.3 percent.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Please note: Your browser must display iFrames to view the Interactive charts.

2014 Release Schedule

Released On:

Release For:

Q4a:2013

Q4p:2013

Q4f:2013

Q1a:2014

Q1p:2014

Q1f:2014

Q2a:2014

Q2p:2014

Q2f:2014

Q3a:2014

Q3p:2014

Q3f:2014

A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final

Thursday, September 18, 2014

GDP growth and incomes

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/10-wednesday-pm-reads-33/

You Can’t Feed a Family With GDP

Source: The Upshot

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Economic impact of September 11, 2001 terrorist attack

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_arising_from_the_September_11_attacks

Recessions:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/real-gdp-increased-20-annual-rate-in-q3.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Thursday, November 7, 2013

GDP

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456061&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

GDP

Released On 11/7/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q3a:2013

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	2.5 %	2.0 %	1.5 % to 2.7 %	2.8 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	0.6 %	1.4 %	0.9 % to 1.9 %	1.9 %

Highlights
GDP growth for the third quarter surprised on the high side but inventories played a big role. Real GDP grew 2.8 percent in the third quarter, following a 2.5 percent rise the quarter before. Analysts projected a 2.0 percent rise.

By contributions to growth, it was a mix. PCEs rose an annualized 1.5 percent, contributing 1.04 percentage points to GDP. Inventories gained $86.0 billion, following a $56.6 billion increase in the second quarter-leading to a third quarter contribution of 0.83 percentage points.

However, PCEs slowed for the quarter after a 1.8 percent increase in the second quarter. Net exports played a notable role in the boost to GDP growth but in the wrong way. Import growth decelerated to 1.9 percent, following a 6.9 percent jump in the second quarter. Essentially, demand slowed. Exports grew but at a slower pace of 4.5 percent versus 8.0 percent in the second quarter.

Housing investment remained healthy as did nonresidential structures. Equipment investment slipped while government purchases were basically flat.

But overall demand is sluggish. Final sales of domestic product rose 2.0 percent in the third quarter after a 2.1 percent increase the prior period. Final sales to domestic purchasers softened to a 1.7 percent gain, following a 2.1 percent rise in the second quarter.

Inflation was a little warmer than expected. The overall GDP price index rose 1.9 percent, following a 0.6 percent annualized gain in the second quarter. Market expectations were for a 1.4 percent annualized gain. Excluding food and energy, inflation was 1.9 percent in the third quarter, following a 0.9 percent rise the previous quarter.

Overall, the economy is not as strong as the headline suggests. We may see some pullback in the fourth quarter on inventories. On the news, equities were little changed.

Market Consensus before announcement
GDP for the third estimate for the second quarter was left unchanged at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent compared to the second estimate and compared to a first quarter rise of 1.1 percent. The biggest positive note was that demand numbers were bumped up slightly-though remained sluggish. Final sales of domestic product were revised up to 2.1 percent from the second estimate of 1.9 percent. This series increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) also were nudged up to 2.1 percent versus the second estimate of 1.9 percent. This followed a 0.5 percent gain in the first quarter. Headline inflation for the GDP price index was revised down to 0.6 percent compared to the second estimate of a 0.8 percent annualized inflation rate. When excluding food and energy, inflation for the second quarter was nudged down to 0.9 percent from the second estimate of 1.1 percent annualized.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Thursday, September 12, 2013

GDP Second quarter 2013

http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/29/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html

U.S. economic growth stronger than thought

By Steve Hargreaves @hargreavesCNN August 29, 2013: 9:33 AM ET

50
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The U.S. economy grew significantly faster than thought in the second quarter, which may help convince the Federal Reserve to start unwinding its stimulus program sooner rather than later.

The nation's gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of economic activity -- rose at a 2.5% annual rate from April through June, according to a revised estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Thursday. That's higher than the 1.7% rate originally reported, and better than the 2.1% rate that economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting.

Rising exports, consumer spending and real estate spending helped boost the second quarter numbers. A decline in government spending acted as a drag.
The big upward revision was primarily the result of a better trade balance -- the nation exported more and imported less than previously thought, according to Paul Ashworth, chief US Economist at Capital Economics.
Related: How the Fed can taper without killing housing
All economic news is being closely watched for signs on when the Federal Reserve will begin curtailing its controversial bond-buying program. The stronger economic growth emboldens views that the Fed could start pulling back as soon as next month.
"The upward revision should give Fed officials more confidence that the recovery is gathering steam as the fiscal drag begins to fade," Ashworth wrote in a research note. "Under those circumstances, we still think the Fed will begin tapering its monthly asset purchases in September."
The Fed has been buying $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to keep interest rates low and spur economic growth. Last May, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined a plan to begin "tapering" the purchases, and pegged the timing of that plan to improving economic data.

How I live on fast-food wages

Investors have taken that to mean as early as September, and have sent bond yields -- and mortgage rates -- soaring.
While 2.5% growth is decent, it's still below the 3.3% the economy has averaged since 1929. The August jobs report -- set for release next Friday -- will provide additional, and more current, data on the health of the U.S. economy.
The government revises its GDP figures several times after the initial release. This is the second estimate for second quarter GDP.

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456059&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Event Release Dates | Event Definitions | Today's Calendar

GDP

Released On 8/29/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q2:13

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.7 %	2.2 %	2.0 % to 2.5 %	2.5 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	0.7 %	0.7 %	0.7 % to 0.8 %	0.8 %

Highlights
Real GDP growth for the second quarter was raised to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent compared to the initial estimate of 1.7 percent and compared to a fourth quarter rise of 0.1 percent. Expectations were for 2.2 percent.

Final sales of domestic product showed a revised gain of 1.9 percent versus the advance estimate of 1.3 percent. This series increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) was nudged down to 1.9 percent versus the initial estimate of 2.0 percent. This followed a 0.5 percent gain in the first quarter.

The upward revision to GDP growth was mainly due to a sharp upward revision to net exports. Also, there were improvements to inventories and nonresidential structures investment. Government purchases were modestly weaker. Other components were little changed.

Turning to comparisons to the first quarter, the increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Headline inflation for the GDP price index was revised up to 0.8 percent compared to the advance estimate of 0.7 percent annualized inflation rate. When excluding food and energy, inflation for the second quarter was unrevised at 1.1 percent.

Overall, GDP growth for the second quarter was better than earlier believed. Compared to past recoveries, the latest growth rates are not inspiring but the upward revision may add to Fed debate to gradually start to taper asset purchases.

Market Consensus before announcement
GDP growth for the second quarter topped expectations but partly due to first quarter GDP being revised down with annual revisions. GDP gained an annualized 1.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in the first quarter. The prior estimate for the first quarter was 1.8 percent. Analysts had projected a 1.1 percent advance for second quarter GDP. Demand was soft in the second quarter but even softer than earlier believed in the first quarter. Final sales of domestic product posted at a gain of 1.3 percent versus the second quarter rise of 0.2 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) increased 2.0 percent after nudging up 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Overall inflation slowed in the second quarter. Headline inflation for the GDP price index rose an annualized 0.7 percent after a 1.3 percent increase in the first quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation eased to 1.1 percent in the second quarter from 1.6 percent the prior quarter.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Friday, April 26, 2013

GDP first quarter 2013

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456055&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

GDP

Released On 4/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q1:13

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	0.4 %	3.1 %	2.3 % to 3.3 %	2.5 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.0 %	1.4 %	0.9 % to 1.8 %	1.2 %

Highlights
The economy had some bounce in the first quarter as GDP growth showed some acceleration. But the details are not as encouraging as the headline. The first quarter grew 2.5 percent after a modest 0.4 gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts forecast a 3.1 percent boost in the first quarter.

Demand growth was very sluggish with weakest component being government purchases while the bright spot was consumer spending. Final sales of domestic product increased 1.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) improved to a 1.9 percent boost, after a 1.5 percent gain in the fourth quarter.

By components, inventory investment jumped to $50.3 billion from $13.3 billion. The big question is whether the second quarter boost was planned or unplanned. Personal consumption accelerated to 3.2 percent from an annualized 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Also on the positive side, residential investment gained 12.6 percent, though at a slower pace than 17.6 percent the quarter before. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced but also at a softer rate, 2.1 percent versus the fourth quarter's 13.2 percent.

On the downside, government purchases fell 4.1 percent, but not as much as the 7.0 percent annualized drop the quarter before. Slowing global growth is showing up as the net export gap worsened to $400.8 billion from $384.7 billion.

Headline inflation for the GDP price index showed mild acceleration to an annualized 1.2 percent in the first quarter from 1.0 percent the prior quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation pressure posted at 1.5 percent, compared 1.3 percent the prior quarter.

While the headline disappointed, it did show improvement. However, the component detail suggests less forward momentum than the overall number.

On the news, equity futures eased somewhat.

Market Consensus before announcement
GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of plus 0.4 percent from the second estimate of 0.1 percent and compared to a third quarter gain of 3.1 percent. The upward revision was largely due to a smaller net export gap, stronger growth in nonresidential structures, and somewhat higher inventory growth. Demand numbers were revised up slightly. Final sales of domestic product came in at 1.9 percent-up from the second estimate of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were nudged up to 1.5 percent versus the second estimate of 1.4 percent. Headline inflation for the GDP price index posted a 1.0 percent annualized inflation rate versus the second estimate of 0.9 percent. When excluding food and energy, inflation was revised to 1.3 percent, versus the second estimate of 1.2 percent.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care

Saturday, October 27, 2012

History of recessions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Friday, October 26, 2012

GDP growth by state, 2011

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm

3rd quarter GDP numbers

Increase: 2% annual rate, above expectation of 1.5%

Comments:

Government spending increases most in two years
Business spending falling; await fiscal cliff resolution
Housing purchases increase

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in federal government spending, a downturn in imports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in residential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by downturns in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/real-gdp-increased-20-annual-rate-in-q3.html#6hOy5wiSRpoW9MmD.99

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/real-gdp-increased-20-annual-rate-in-q3.html

====================

Comprehensive discussion: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/gdp-better-thx-to-defense-spending/

GDP better thx to defense spending

By Peter Boockvar - October 26th, 2012, 8:13AM

GDP in Q3 rose 2.0%, better than expectations of 1.8% and an improvement from the 1.3% rise in Q2. Nominal GDP was up by 4.8%, well above the estimate of 3.9% as the Price Deflator was up by 2.8%, the 2nd most gain since Q3 ’08 and higher than the forecast of 2.1%. Personal Spending was up by 2%, actually a touch less than expected. Gross Private Investment was up by .5%, below the gain seen in Q2 as spending on equipment and software was flat after solid gains in previous quarters. Residential construction picked up some of that slack with a 14.4% rise. Trade was a modest drag as exports fell 1.6% while imports were lower by just .2%. Federal Government spending looks like the main driver of the better than expected headline print as it rose by 3.7% led by a 13% gain in defense spending. Spending at the state and local level fell by a .1%. Inventories were a tiny drag as they rose less than the gain seen in Q2. Real final sales, taking out the inventory influence, rose by 2.1% vs 1.7% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. Bottom line, 2% growth is about in line with the average seen over the past three years of 2.1% but the deceleration in trend is evident as the economy grew 2.4% in ’10, 1.8% in ’11 and averaging 1.8% in ’12. Mathematically, GDP should grow at population growth + productivity. Population is growing by 1% and productivity just 1% vs the 30 yr average productivity growth of 2.2%. We need more savings and investment for this, not more borrowing and spending pushed by gov’t monetary and fiscal policy.

=---------------------------

http://global.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451307&cust=global-premium&year=2012&lid=0#top

2012 Economic Calendar

Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Event Release Dates | Event Definitions | Today's Calendar

United States : GDP

Released On 10/26/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q3a:2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.3 %	1.9 %	1.0 % to 3.9 %	2.0 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR	1.6 %	2.0 %	1.4 % to 2.7 %	2.8 %

Market Consensus before announcement
GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down for the second quarter. The Commerce Department estimated growth at a mere 1.3 percent annualized pace, compared to the second estimate of 1.7 percent and advance estimate of 1.5 percent. The latest number was sharply slower than the 2.0 percent seen in the first quarter and especially the 4.1 percent boost posted for the fourth quarter of last year.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.

2012 Release Schedule

Released On:

Release For:

Q4a:

Q4p:

Q4f:

Q1a:

Q1p:

Q1f:

Q2a:

Q2p:

Q2f:

Q3a:

Q3p:

Q3f:

A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final

=====================================

Another commentary

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/a-closer-look-gdp-data/

A Closer Look GDP Data

By Barry Ritholtz - October 26th, 2012, 12:15PM

Adventures in confirmation bias: The GDP data this morning was a deep sigh of relief for those people who fear a recession may be coming.
I don’t have that sense of relief. Perhaps its my own bias, but the details of the GDP report reveal not an organic growth period in a healthy recovering economy, but rather a tepid post-credit crisis expansion highly dependent on government largesse and Federal Reserve accommodation.
It is about what we should expect: Below-trend growth, as the economy gradually heals, individual and bank balance sheets slowly improve, and the excesses of the prior cycle get wrung out of the system.
Consider the major factors within this GDP report:

-Residential construction rose 14.4%. Housing is a bright spot; with sales and prices increasing. However, this has been artificially goosed by the Fed’s ultra low rates and purchases MBS. Mortgage rates are at their lowest levels since WW2, and foreclosure abatements have created an appearance of reduced distress sales. So this portion of GDP is positive but artificial; it added about 0.3% to GDP.
-Defense Spending rose by 13% — this added 0.6% to GDP. This is not what we want driving GDP, but rather, Ii prefer to see private sector improvements.
-Business Spending remains soft. Ignore the nonsensical “Uncertainty” trope; if demand were there, businesses would add personnel and make CapEx investments as necessary. (idiotic rationalizations spoon fed to the gullible do not count as intelligent economic analysis to me — and that includes “uncertainty”).
-Slowing Exports (down 1.6%) took a few bips off of GDP.
-Midwestern Drought I do recognize that the probably whacked almost half a percentage point from overall GDP numbers (0.1% times 4Qs for an annualized 0.4%).

By my numbers, half of the GDP gains came from Fed/Uncle Sam. The slowdown in Europe and Asia are pressuring economic activity; the drought took away some of the gains, and without that, we should have seen some more strength.
Overall, this report suggests that we are not yet in recession, yet, but are barely above stall speed — more like a 1.5% GDP ex-government interventions and drought. The improvements we are seeing seem to be driven mostly by Fed and government intervention.
The key question, in light of the mediocre earnings season, is how long the propping up can continue.

Sources:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2012 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)
BEA, October 25, 2012
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/pdf/gdp3q12_adv.pdf

PERMALINK
Category: Economy, Federal Reserve.

--------------------------------

Another look:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/comments-on-q3-gdp-and-investment.html

Comments on Q3 GDP and Investment

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2012 12:15:00 PM

The Q3 GDP report was weak, with 2.0% annualized real GDP growth, but slightly better than expected. Final demand increased in Q3 as personal consumption expenditures increased at a 2.0% annual rate (up from 1.5% in Q2), and residential investment

increased at a 14.4% annual rate (up from 8.5% in Q2).

Investment in equipment and software

was flat in Q3, and investment in non-residential structures was negative. However, it appears the drag from state and local governments will end soon (after declining for 3 years).

Overall this was another weak report indicating sluggish growth.

The following graph shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter centered average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

For the following graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential Investment (RI) made a positive contribution to GDP in Q3 for the sixth consecutive quarter. Usually residential investment leads the economy, but that didn't happen this time because of the huge overhang of existing inventory, but now RI is contributing. The good news: Residential investment has clearly bottomed.

The contribution from RI will probably continue to be sluggish compared to previous recoveries, but the ongoing positive contribution to GDP is a significant story.

Equipment and software investment was unchanged in Q3 (compared to Q2). This followed twelve consecutive quarters with a positive contribution.

The contribution from nonresidential investment in structures was negative in Q3. Nonresidential investment in structures typically lags the recovery, however investment in energy and power has masked the ongoing weakness in office, mall and hotel investment (the underlying details will be released next week).

The second graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

State and Local Government Residential Investment GDP

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 6 quarters (through Q3 2012).

However the drag from state and local governments is ongoing, although the drag in Q3 was very small. State and local governments have been a drag on GDP for twelve consecutive quarters. Although not as large a negative as the worst of the housing bust (and much smaller spillover effects), this decline has been relentless and unprecedented. The good news is the drag appears to be ending.

In real terms, state and local government spending is now back to 2001 levels, even with a larger population.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is up from the record lows during the housing bust. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time there is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.

Last year the increase in RI was mostly from multifamily and home improvement investment. Now the increase is from most categories including single family. I'll break down Residential Investment (RI) into components after the GDP details are released this coming week. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's

commissions, and a few minor categories.

The last graph shows non-residential investment in structures and equipment and software.

I'll add details for investment in offices, malls and hotels next week.

The key story is that residential investment is continuing to increase, and I expect this to continue (although the recovery in RI will be sluggish compared to previous recoveries). Since RI is the best leading indicator for the economy, this suggests no recession this year or in 2013 (with the usual caveats about Europe and policy errors in the US).

Earlier with revision graphs:
• Real GDP increased 2.0% annual rate in Q3

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

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U.S. economic growth stronger than thought

The U.S. economy grew significantly faster than thought in the second quarter, which may help convince the Federal Reserve to start unwinding its stimulus program sooner rather than later.

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Economic news - CNNMoney.com