GDP first quarter 2013

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456055&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

GDP

Released On 4/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q1:13 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 0.4 % 3.1 % 2.3 % to 3.3 % 2.5 % GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.0 % 1.4 % 0.9 % to 1.8 % 1.2 %

Highlights The economy had some bounce in the first quarter as GDP growth showed some acceleration. But the details are not as encouraging as the headline. The first quarter grew 2.5 percent after a modest 0.4 gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts forecast a 3.1 percent boost in the first quarter. Demand growth was very sluggish with weakest component being government purchases while the bright spot was consumer spending. Final sales of domestic product increased 1.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) improved to a 1.9 percent boost, after a 1.5 percent gain in the fourth quarter. By components, inventory investment jumped to $50.3 billion from $13.3 billion. The big question is whether the second quarter boost was planned or unplanned. Personal consumption accelerated to 3.2 percent from an annualized 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Also on the positive side, residential investment gained 12.6 percent, though at a slower pace than 17.6 percent the quarter before. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced but also at a softer rate, 2.1 percent versus the fourth quarter's 13.2 percent. On the downside, government purchases fell 4.1 percent, but not as much as the 7.0 percent annualized drop the quarter before. Slowing global growth is showing up as the net export gap worsened to $400.8 billion from $384.7 billion. Headline inflation for the GDP price index showed mild acceleration to an annualized 1.2 percent in the first quarter from 1.0 percent the prior quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation pressure posted at 1.5 percent, compared 1.3 percent the prior quarter. While the headline disappointed, it did show improvement. However, the component detail suggests less forward momentum than the overall number. On the news, equity futures eased somewhat.

Market Consensus before announcement GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of plus 0.4 percent from the second estimate of 0.1 percent and compared to a third quarter gain of 3.1 percent. The upward revision was largely due to a smaller net export gap, stronger growth in nonresidential structures, and somewhat higher inventory growth. Demand numbers were revised up slightly. Final sales of domestic product came in at 1.9 percent-up from the second estimate of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were nudged up to 1.5 percent versus the second estimate of 1.4 percent. Headline inflation for the GDP price index posted a 1.0 percent annualized inflation rate versus the second estimate of 0.9 percent. When excluding food and energy, inflation was revised to 1.3 percent, versus the second estimate of 1.2 percent.

Definition Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable. Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes. Data Source: Haver Analytics