GDP revision

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GDP

Released On 12/23/2014 8:30:00 AM For Q3f:2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 3.9 % 3.9 % 4.3 % 4.0 % to 4.5 % 5.0 % GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % to 1.4 % 1.4 %

Highlights Third-quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to plus 5.0 percent for the strongest rate since way back in third-quarter 2003. Today's second revision, up 1.1 percentage points from the first revision and compared to plus 4.6 percent for the second quarter, reflects gains for health care, recreation, financial services, and software. Final sales were also revised sharply higher, to plus 5.0 vs a prior reading of 4.1 percent. GDP prices remain soft at plus 1.4 percent in a reading that is likely to ebb further given this quarter's drop in oil prices. Today's results point to unexpectedly strong economic momentum going into the current quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator GDP grew 3.9 percent in the third quarter versus the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. Growth still decelerated from the second quarter weather rebound of 4.6 percent annualized. With the second estimate for the third quarter, private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated, and both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more. In contrast, exports increased less than previously estimated. On the price front, the chain-weighted price index was revised up marginally to 1.4 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 1.3 percent annualized from 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The core chain index, excluding food and energy, eased to 1.7 percent but was slightly higher than the initial estimate of 1.6 percent.

Definition Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable. Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes. Data Source: Haver Analytics