Friday, January 25, 2013
Distressing gap in housing market
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/new-home-sales-and-distressing-gap.html
Historical house prices
http://marketwatch666.blogspot.com/2012/09/employment-gdp-revisions-august-incomes.html
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http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456551&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0
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http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456551&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Housing starts
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456088&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0
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Highlights
Housing is still recovering and at moderate levels of activity but December starts suggest that recovery is moving somewhat faster than earlier believed. Housing starts in December rebounded a sharp 12.1 percent, following a dip of 4.3 percent the month before. The December starts pace of 0.954 million units topped analysts' forecast for 0.887 million units and was up 36.9 percent on a year-ago basis. November was revised to 0.851 million units from the initial estimate of 0.861 million. The jump in starts was led by the multifamily component although single-family starts also were up notably. Multifamily starts jumped 20.3 percent after a 6.3 percent decline in November. The single-family component gained 8.1 percent in December after decreasing 3.2 percent the prior month. By region, starts in December were led up by the Midwest region which posted a monthly 24.7 percent jump in starts. Also rising were the Northeast, up 21.4 percent; the West, up 18.7 percent; and the South, up 3.8 percent. Forward momentum continues as housing permits gained 0.3 percent to an annual pace of 0.903 million units. Market expectations for housing permits for December were for 0.910 million units. Housing is adding to the recovery with moderately positive growth although still from relatively low levels of activity. A caveat about the numbers is that seasonal factors are large during winter months and this may be coming into play. | |||||||||||||||||||||
Market Consensus before announcement
Housing starts in November declined 3.0 percent, following an increase of 5.3 percent in October and a jump of 12.4 percent in September. The November starts pace of 0.861 million units was up 21.6 percent on a year-ago basis. October was revised to 0.888 million units from the initial estimate of 0.894 million. September was bumped down to 0.843 million annualized units from the prior estimate of 0.863 units. The latest decrease in starts was led by the single-family component while the multifamily component edged down. Home builders still are moderately optimistic about future sales as housing permits rose 3.6 percent to an annual pace of 0.899 million units. | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Definition A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Why Investors Care | |||||||||||||||||||||
Existing home sales
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456304&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0
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Highlights
Lack of homes for sale, especially at the low end, are holding down sales of existing homes which are down 1.0 percent in the December report to an annual rate of 4.94 million which is a bit below Econoday's consensus. Supply is severely constrained at 4.4 months at the current sales rate vs 4.8 months in November and compared to 6.4 months in December 2011. Low supply may be bad for sales but it's good for prices which rose 0.8 percent in the month to a median $180,800. The year-on-year gain in the median price, at 11.5 percent in December, trended in the low double digits through the fourth quarter. Details show a dip for single-family home sales in the latest month that was only offset slightly by a gain for condos. Total sales show regional declines in the Midwest and South and show gains for the West and Northeast. This year is expected to be a good one for the residential sector with rising home prices generally expected to be a big plus for the consumer. Though the pace of sales did dip back in December, the trend is still pointing up with sales moving steadily and convincingly higher from the 4.37 million rate back in June. The Dow is moving lower following today's report. Tomorrow housing data will lead off with mortgage purchase applications, which have been very bumpy, and will be followed by FHFA price data where a big gain is expected. Data on new home sales, which have been slowly but steadily building momentum, will be posted on Friday. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Market Consensus before announcement
Existing home sales surged 5.9 percent in November to a 5.04 million annual rate and followed a 1.5 percent rise in October. Existing home sales were up 14.5 percent on a year ago basis, compared to 10.2 percent in October. Hurricane Sandy seems to have had no significant effect on sales where in the Northeast they surged 6.9 percent following a modest decline in October. Sales in the other three regions all showed gains for both November and October as well. Supply fell sharply, to 4.8 months at the current sales rate from 5.3 months in October which was already a multi-year low. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Definition Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors) Why Investors Care | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Friday, January 18, 2013
Housing market in December 2013
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456088&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0
| Housing Starts | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Highlights
Housing is still recovering and at moderate levels of activity but December starts suggest that recovery is moving somewhat faster than earlier believed. Housing starts in December rebounded a sharp 12.1 percent, following a dip of 4.3 percent the month before. The December starts pace of 0.954 million units topped analysts' forecast for 0.887 million units and was up 36.9 percent on a year-ago basis. November was revised to 0.851 million units from the initial estimate of 0.861 million. The jump in starts was led by the multifamily component although single-family starts also were up notably. Multifamily starts jumped 20.3 percent after a 6.3 percent decline in November. The single-family component gained 8.1 percent in December after decreasing 3.2 percent the prior month. By region, starts in December were led up by the Midwest region which posted a monthly 24.7 percent jump in starts. Also rising were the Northeast, up 21.4 percent; the West, up 18.7 percent; and the South, up 3.8 percent. Forward momentum continues as housing permits gained 0.3 percent to an annual pace of 0.903 million units. Market expectations for housing permits for December were for 0.910 million units. Housing is adding to the recovery with moderately positive growth although still from relatively low levels of activity. A caveat about the numbers is that seasonal factors are large during winter months and this may be coming into play. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Market Consensus before announcement
Housing starts in November declined 3.0 percent, following an increase of 5.3 percent in October and a jump of 12.4 percent in September. The November starts pace of 0.861 million units was up 21.6 percent on a year-ago basis. October was revised to 0.888 million units from the initial estimate of 0.894 million. September was bumped down to 0.843 million annualized units from the prior estimate of 0.863 units. The latest decrease in starts was led by the single-family component while the multifamily component edged down. Home builders still are moderately optimistic about future sales as housing permits rose 3.6 percent to an annual pace of 0.899 million units. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Definition A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building. Why Investors Care | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Wednesday, December 19, 2012
TARP bailout close to breaking even
http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/19/news/economy/tarp-breaking-even/index.html
TARP bailout close to breaking even
@CNNMoney December 19, 2012: 1:50 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The TARP bailout fund, which pumped nearly $500 billion into the nation's leading banks, automakers and insurers, is getting closer to the break-even point.
The big banks had already paid back their loans, and last week, the Treasury Departmentsold its remaining stake in AIG (AIG, Fortune 500). On Wednesday, General Motors(GM, Fortune 500) said it was buying back 200 million shares from the government. Bailed-out companies had also paid nearly $43 billion in dividends and interest over the past four years.
That leaves a loss of just under $14 billion, including $6 billion for programs to prevent foreclosure that were never meant to be paid back.
The shares of banks and automakers that Treasury still owns is likely to fetch close to that much, if not more.
For example, Treasury will still own 300 million shares of GM stock that it plans to sell during the next 15 months. At current prices, the stake alone is worth more than $8 billion.
The Treasury also owns a 74% stake in Ally Financial, as well as $5.9 billion in preferred shares. While the exact value of those holdings isn't known because Ally shares are not publicly traded, the holdings could easily top the $6 billion gap still remaining after GM.
Though Treasury no longer owns shares in the nation's biggest banks, it still holds stakes in 213 small banks that have been unable to raise the capital they need to repay taxpayers. Treasury expects to sell its holdings in about two-thirds of those banks in 2013.
Not everyone thinks TARP should be counted as this close to break-even. One issue is how to count dividends and interest. The Special Inspector General for TARP does not include them, arguing those payments were owed for use of the bailout funds.
The TARP watchdog also doesn't count $17.6 billion from the sale of AIG shares that Treasury got from the Federal Reserve.
Neil Barofsky, the original Special Inspector General and a critic of the bailout, acknowledges that a lot of money has been paid back. "I'm pretty agnostic as to what should be counted [as a profit or loss]," he said. "But it seems like under almost any of the official estimates, the loss will be much smaller than anyone thought in 2009."
Even so, he argues the bailout failed at its mission of getting banks to loan out money they received, and helping to stabilize the battered housing market.
Even if taxpayers break even on TARP, it wasn't the only bailout to consider.
The largest was $187.5 billion for mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Even with the $50.5 billion in dividends, taxpayers are still out $137 billion from that rescue.
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