Producer Price Index

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Producer Price Index Released On 3/14/2013 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2013 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual PPI - M/M change 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.2 % to 1.5 % 0.7 % PPI -Yr/Yr change 1.4 % 1.8 % PPI less food & energy - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 % PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change 1.8 % 1.7 % Highlights Energy inflation was back in February, boosting the headline rate for the PPI. The core, however, remained moderate. The February producer price index increased a strong 0.7 percent, following a rebound of 0.2 percent in January. The February figure posted higher than market expectations for a 0.6 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.2 percent-matching the prior month's pace. The consensus projected a 0.2 percent increase. Food prices declined 0.5 percent after jumping 0.7 percent in January. Energy costs in February accelerated to a 3.0 percent boost, following a 0.4 percent decline the prior month. Gasoline spiked 7.2 percent, following a monthly decrease of 2.1 percent in January. Within the core, about twenty percent of the February increase can be traced to prices for pharmaceutical preparations, which moved up 0.2 percent. An advance in the index for plastic products also contributed to higher prices for finished goods less foods and energy. Passenger car prices gained 0.3 percent while light trucks rose 0.1 percent. For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in posted at 1.8 percent, compared to 1.4 percent in January (seasonally adjusted). The core rate was up 1.7 percent versus 1.8 percent in January. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for February, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.7 percent, while the core was up 1.7 percent. Market Consensus before announcement The producer price index rebounded 0.2 percent, following a dip of 0.3 percent the prior month. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, gained 0.2 percent, following a rise of 0.1 percent in December. Food inflation increased 0.7 after dropping 0.8 percent in December. Energy costs in January slipped another 0.4 percent, following a decline of 0.6 percent in December. Gasoline declined 2.1 percent after decreasing 1.8 percent in December. Within the core, most of the January advance can be traced to a 2.5 percent rise in the index for pharmaceutical preparations. While crude oil prices dipped in early March, the February average was up and suggests upward pressure on the headline number for the PPI. Definition The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices received by producers.  Why Investors Care   It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Please note: Your browser must display iFrames to view the Interactive charts.   2013 Release Schedule Released On: 1/15 2/20 3/14 4/12 5/15 6/14 7/12 8/14 9/13 10/11 11/14 12/13 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov   Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2013 Econoday, Inc.  powered by

Industrial production

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Industrial Production

Released On 3/15/2013 9:11:00 AM For Feb, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Production - M/M change -0.1 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.2 % to 1.0 % 0.7 % Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 79.1 % 79.2 % 79.4 % 79.0 % to 79.6 % 79.6 % Manufacturing - M/M -0.4 % -0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.7 % 0.8 %

Highlights Today's industrial production report was released early-at 9:11 a.m. ET. Manufacturing in in February improved sharply. Overall industrial production jumped 0.7 percent in February after no change in January (originally down 0.1 percent). Market expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain in February for overall production. The manufacturing component rebounded 0.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.3 percent rise for the manufacturing component. The rate of motor assemblies remained strong and rose 3.6 percent after a 4.9 percent drop in January. Other industries generally showed healthy gains. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing gained 0.6 percent in February after a 0.1 percent increase the prior month. The output of utilities increased 1.6 percent in February while production at mines dipped 0.3 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry advanced to 79.6 percent from 79.2 percent in January. Expectations were for 79.4 percent. Manufacturing may be making a comeback after a soft January. Today's numbers will likely nudge up estimates for first quarter GDP. The report also will boost debate next week within the Fed on when to unwind easy monetary policy. The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Market Consensus before announcement Industrial production in January fell back but after strong gains in December and November. Industrial production in January slipped 0.1 percent, following an advance of 0.4 percent the month before and a 1.4 percent jump in November. In January, the manufacturing component declined 0.4 percent, following a boost of 1.1 percent in December and an increase of 1.7 percent in November. The output of utilities gained 3.5 percent in January while production at mines fell 1.0 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry eased to 79.1 percent from 79.3 percent in December. Looking ahead, national manufacturing growth is likely to be on the plus side as production worker hours rebounded 0.5 percent in February. This should boost the manufacturing component in industrial production.

Definition The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2007. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.  Why Investors Care

The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent. Data Source: Haver Analytics

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