Producer Price Index |
Released On 3/14/2013 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2013
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
PPI - M/M change | 0.2 % | 0.6 % | 0.2 % to 1.5 % | 0.7 % |
PPI -Yr/Yr change | 1.4 % |
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| 1.8 % |
PPI less food & energy - M/M change | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % to 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change | 1.8 % |
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| 1.7 % |
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Highlights
Energy inflation was back in February, boosting the headline rate for
the PPI. The core, however, remained moderate. The February producer
price index increased a strong 0.7 percent, following a rebound of 0.2
percent in January. The February figure posted higher than market
expectations for a 0.6 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes
both food and energy, rose 0.2 percent-matching the prior month's pace.
The consensus projected a 0.2 percent increase.
Food prices
declined 0.5 percent after jumping 0.7 percent in January. Energy costs
in February accelerated to a 3.0 percent boost, following a 0.4 percent
decline the prior month. Gasoline spiked 7.2 percent, following a
monthly decrease of 2.1 percent in January.
Within the core,
about twenty percent of the February increase can be traced to prices
for pharmaceutical preparations, which moved up 0.2 percent. An advance
in the index for plastic products also contributed to higher prices for
finished goods less foods and energy. Passenger car prices gained 0.3
percent while light trucks rose 0.1 percent.
For the overall PPI,
the year-ago rate in posted at 1.8 percent, compared to 1.4 percent in
January (seasonally adjusted). The core rate was up 1.7 percent versus
1.8 percent in January. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for
February, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.7 percent, while the core
was up 1.7 percent.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The producer price index rebounded 0.2 percent, following a dip of
0.3 percent the prior month. The core rate, which excludes both food
and energy, gained 0.2 percent, following a rise of 0.1 percent in
December. Food inflation increased 0.7 after dropping 0.8 percent in
December. Energy costs in January slipped another 0.4 percent,
following a decline of 0.6 percent in December. Gasoline declined 2.1
percent after decreasing 1.8 percent in December. Within the core, most
of the January advance can be traced to a 2.5 percent rise in the index
for pharmaceutical preparations. While crude oil prices dipped in
early March, the February average was up and suggests upward pressure on
the headline number for the PPI.
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Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time
in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.
PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The
headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of the average price
level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices
received by producers.
Why Investors Care
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It is always a good idea to look
at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in
established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile
because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI
eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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Yearly changes tend to smooth
out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the
underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that
the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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