S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index

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S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Released On 9/24/2013 9:00:00 AM For Jul, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual 20-city, SA - M/M 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.4 % to 1.0 % 0.6 % 20-city, NSA - M/M 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.0 % 1.0 % to 2.1 % 1.8 % 20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr 12.1 % 12.1 % 12.4 % 11.2 % to 12.8 % 12.4 %

Highlights Home-price appreciation is slowing on a monthly basis though is still growing on a year-on-year basis. S&P Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted monthly index is up 0.6 percent in July, down from 0.9 percent gains in the prior two months and down from 1.7 and 1.9 percent gains in the two months before that. But the year-on-year adjusted rate, at plus 12.3 percent, is up 3 tenths for a new recovery high. A look at monthly change among individual cities shows only scattered negative signs with many showing strong gains led by cities in the West. Year-on-year, growth rates in the West are in the 20 percent area led by Las Vegas at 27.5 percent. Unadjusted data are followed closely in this report and tell the same story with the year-on-year rate at plus 12.4 percent for the 20-city index, also a recovery best. The unadjusted monthly gain in July, a month when buyer traffic is strong and sellers have pricing power, is at 1.8 percent but is down a bit from 2.2 percent in June. Rising mortgage rates are likely pulling back demand and pricing power in the housing sector but, at least up to July, only to a limited degree. This is underscored by a strong FHFA house price index for July which was also released at 9:00 a.m. ET this morning.

Market Consensus before announcement The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) was up 0.9 percent in the June report versus an average monthly gain of 1.4 percent from January to May. But the year-on-year adjusted gain, at a very sizable 12.0 percent, was just off its best level of the recovery which was May at plus 12.2 percent.

Definition The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The key composite series tracked are for the expanded 20-city composite indexes. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The data are compiled for S&P by Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2008 were for November 2007.  Why Investors Care

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas. Data Source: Haver Analytics