Monday, January 27, 2014

New home sales for

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New Home Sales
Released On 1/27/2014 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2013

PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR464 K445 K450 K420 K to 471 K414 K
Highlights
New home sales had been a bright spot in the housing sector -- but not any more. Sales of new homes nose dived in December, to a 414,000 annual rate that's below the low end estimate of Econoday's consensus. More bad news comes from downward revisions that total 30,000 in the prior two months.

The drop in sales gave a lift to supply, at least supply relative to sales which is at 5.0 months vs 4.7 months in November. But the total number of new homes on the market actually fell, down 5,000 to an adjusted 171,000.

High prices are no doubt a factor behind the sales weakness but not a pronounced factor. The median price rose 0.6 percent to $270,200 with the year-on-year rate very modest at plus 4.6 percent which is right in line with the plus 4.6 percent year-on-year rate for sales.

Bad weather may have played a factor in December's disappointment but heavy weather is common to all Decembers. Unattractive mortgage rates and the still soft jobs market appear to be holding down housing noticeably. On Thursday, watch for pending home sales data which track initial contract signings for sales of existing homes. The Dow is little changed following today's results.
Market Consensus before announcement
New home sales fell 2.1 percent in a deceptive November reading where the 464,000 annual sales rate exceeded what were solid expectations but looked soft against a sharply upward revised October, now at 474,000 versus an initial reading of 444,000. Underscoring the October revision was an even sharper upward revision to September, to 403,000 from 354,000. One factor favoring sellers is supply which was very thin at 4.3 months at the current sales rate versus 4.5 months in October. New homes on the market fell 12,000 in the month to 167,000.
Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
There is no question that lower interest rates boost home sales. Other factors also impact housing decisions, such as employment and income growth, and wealth stemming from stock market gains.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Labor market report for December



2014 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released On 1/10/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change203,000 241,000 200,000 120,000  to 225,000 74,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level7.0 %7.0 %6.9 % to 7.1 %6.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change196,000 226,000 189,000 120,000  to 220,000 87,000 
Highlights
Not tapering likely is back on the Fed's table for the next policy meeting-yes, not tapering further. Total payroll jobs in December grew a meager 74,000, following a revised increase of 241,000 for November (originally up 203,000) and after a revised gain of 200,000 for October (previous estimate was 200,000). Expectations were for a 200,000 increase. The net revisions for October and November were up 38,000. Private payrolls gained 87,000 after rising 226,000 in November. Expectations were for a 189,000 boost in December.

The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent from 7.0 percent in November. The consensus expected a 7.0 percent unemployment rate. The rate declined due to a sharp drop in the labor force. Household employment rose 143,000 in December but the labor force dropped 347,000.

Turning back to the payroll portion of the report, goods-producing jobs declined by 3,000 after a 51,000 boost in November. Construction dropped 16,000 in December, following a 19,000 increase the month before. The monthly swings in this subcomponent can be affected by large seasonal factors this time of year. Manufacturing jobs advanced 9,000 after a 31,000 gain in November.

Private service-providing jobs increased 90,000, following a 175,000 boost in November. Employment in retail trade rose by 55,000 in December. In December, wholesale trade added 15,000 jobs. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in December (+19,000). Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in December, while employment in accounting and bookkeeping services declined by 25,000.

Government contracted by 13,000 after rising 15,000 in November.

Wage growth came in a modest 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in November. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek nudged down to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours. The median forecast was for 34.5 hours.

The December jobs report was decidedly weaker than expected and the decline in the unemployment rate was actually a negative due to the basis for the dip. The big question is whether the latest employment report was an aberration or not. Other employment data have been more favorable, including ADP and various surveys. On the news, equity futures were down somewhat.
Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in November advanced 203,000, following an increase of 200,000 for October and after a gain of 175,000 for September. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The November number was the lowest in five years. Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 
 
2014 Release Schedule
Released On:1/102/73/74/45/26/67/38/19/510/311/712/5
Release For:DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 

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