Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Labor market report for December



2014 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released On 1/10/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change203,000 241,000 200,000 120,000  to 225,000 74,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level7.0 %7.0 %6.9 % to 7.1 %6.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change196,000 226,000 189,000 120,000  to 220,000 87,000 
Highlights
Not tapering likely is back on the Fed's table for the next policy meeting-yes, not tapering further. Total payroll jobs in December grew a meager 74,000, following a revised increase of 241,000 for November (originally up 203,000) and after a revised gain of 200,000 for October (previous estimate was 200,000). Expectations were for a 200,000 increase. The net revisions for October and November were up 38,000. Private payrolls gained 87,000 after rising 226,000 in November. Expectations were for a 189,000 boost in December.

The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent from 7.0 percent in November. The consensus expected a 7.0 percent unemployment rate. The rate declined due to a sharp drop in the labor force. Household employment rose 143,000 in December but the labor force dropped 347,000.

Turning back to the payroll portion of the report, goods-producing jobs declined by 3,000 after a 51,000 boost in November. Construction dropped 16,000 in December, following a 19,000 increase the month before. The monthly swings in this subcomponent can be affected by large seasonal factors this time of year. Manufacturing jobs advanced 9,000 after a 31,000 gain in November.

Private service-providing jobs increased 90,000, following a 175,000 boost in November. Employment in retail trade rose by 55,000 in December. In December, wholesale trade added 15,000 jobs. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in December (+19,000). Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in December, while employment in accounting and bookkeeping services declined by 25,000.

Government contracted by 13,000 after rising 15,000 in November.

Wage growth came in a modest 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in November. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek nudged down to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours. The median forecast was for 34.5 hours.

The December jobs report was decidedly weaker than expected and the decline in the unemployment rate was actually a negative due to the basis for the dip. The big question is whether the latest employment report was an aberration or not. Other employment data have been more favorable, including ADP and various surveys. On the news, equity futures were down somewhat.
Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in November advanced 203,000, following an increase of 200,000 for October and after a gain of 175,000 for September. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The November number was the lowest in five years. Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours.
Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 
 
2014 Release Schedule
Released On:1/102/73/74/45/26/67/38/19/510/311/712/5
Release For:DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 

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