Monday, March 24, 2014

Producer PPI

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PPI-FD
Released On 3/14/2014 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2014
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI-FD - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.4 %-0.1 %
PPI-FD - Y/Y change1.2 %0.9 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.2 %-0.2 %
PPI-FD less food & energy - Y/Y change1.2 %1.1 %
PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services - M/M change0.1 %0.1 %
PPI-FD Goods - M/M change0.4 %0.4 %
PPI-FD Goods - Y/Y change0.9 %0.6 %
PPI-FD Services - M/M change0.1 %-0.3 %
PPI-FD Services - Y/Y change1.3 %1.0 %
Highlights
The PPI for total final demand dipped 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.2 percent in January. Market expectations were for 0.2 percent. Total final demand excluding food & energy declined 0.2 percent after increasing 0.2 percent the month before. The consensus called for 0.1 percent. Total final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in February, matching the pace in January.

In February, the 0.1-percent decrease in final demand prices can be traced to the index for final demand services, which fell 0.3 percent. Most of the February drop can be traced to margins for final demand trade services, which fell 1.0 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand goods advanced 0.4 percent.

On a not seasonally adjusted basis, PPI final demand was up 0.9 percent in February; excluding food & energy, up 1.1 percent. Excluding food, energy & trade services is not yet available on a year-ago basis since the series starts for August 2013.
Market Consensus before announcement
The producer price index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in January after a gain of 0.1 percent in December. What the "core" series is remains open to debate. Total final demand excluding food & energy increased 0.2 percent after no change in December. Total final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in January, following a boost of 0.3 percent in December. For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate posted at 1.2 percent versus 1.1 percent in December (seasonally adjusted). On a not seasonally adjust basis, PPI final demand was up 1.2 percent in January; excluding food & energy, up 1.3 percent. Excluding food, energy & trade services is not yet available on a year-ago basis since the series starts for August 2013.
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
With the redefined and expanded PPI Final Demand series, energy still creates monthly volatility. However, services and construction have softened the headline and core numbers.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
A sluggish economy in 2013 and 2014 slowed inflation at the producer level.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
2014 Release Schedule
Released On:1/152/193/144/115/146/137/168/159/1610/1511/1812/12
Release For:DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 

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