Employment situation for March 2014

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2014 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation Released On 4/4/2014 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 175,000  197,000  206,000  175,000  to 275,000  192,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 6.7 % 6.6 % 6.6 % to 6.7 % 6.7 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.4 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.4 % 0.0 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.2 hrs 34.4 hrs 34.3 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 162,000  188,000  215,000  175,000  to 270,000  192,000  Highlights Job growth is improving but not quite as much as forecast. Total nonfarm payroll jobs rose 192,000 in March after a 197,000 boost in February and a 144,000 increase in January. The net revision for the prior two months was up 37,000. Expectations for March were for 206,000. Private payrolls gained 192,000, following an increase of 188,000 in February. Analysts projected 215,000 for March. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent. The consensus projected 6.6 percent. Turning back to the payroll portion of the report, goods-producing jobs rose 25,000 in March after a gain of 40,000 in February. Construction advanced 19,000, following a 18,000 increase the month before. Manufacturing jobs slipped 1,000 after rising 19,000 in February. Private service-providing jobs increased 167,000, following an 148,000 rise in February. Professional and business services added 57,000 jobs in March. Health care added 19,000 jobs. Retail trade gained 21,000. Government jobs were flat after rising 9,000 in February. Average weekly hours improved to 34.5 from 34.3 in February. Average hourly earnings came off as unchanged in March after a spike of 0.4 percent in February. Overall, the labor market is improving but very gradually. The doves at the Fed-including Chair Yellen-almost certainly will see this report as still too soft. Market Consensus before announcement Nonfarm payroll employment gained 175,000 in February after a 129,000 rise in January and an 84,000 increase in December. The net revision for the prior two months was up 25,000. The BLS did note that atypically severe winter weather occurred during the payroll reference period. While not specifically stating, the implication is that the labor market is somewhat stronger than the official payroll number for February. The unemployment rate nudged up to 6.7 percent in February from 6.6 percent the month before. Average weekly hours slipped to 34.2 from 34.3 in January. This dip almost certainly was weather related. A big plus in the report for February was a jump in average hourly earnings growth to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent the prior month. Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care   During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics   The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics       2014 Release Schedule Released On: 1/10 2/7 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov   Share this page 6 Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2014 Econoday, Inc.  powered by