Unemployment for July 2014

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http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461121&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Employment Situation

Released On 8/1/2014 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 288,000  298,000  233,000  200,000  to 280,000  209,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.0 % to 6.1 % 6.2 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.0 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 262,000  270.000  233,000  200,000  to 275,000  198,000

Highlights Payroll growth was on the soft side in July but still moderately positive. Markets see the latest numbers as not moving up the Fed's schedule for interest rate increases. Total nonfarm payroll jobs rose 209,000 in July after a 298,000 gain in June and a 229,000 rise in May. The net revision for the prior two months was up 15,000. Expectations for July were for 233,000. The unemployment rate nudged up to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent in June. Expectations were for 6.1 percent. Turning back to the payroll report, private jobs advanced 198,000 after a 270,000 increase the month before. Analysts forecast 233,000. It was the goods-producing sector that was relatively healthy, gaining 58,000 in July, following a 38,000 rise in June. Manufacturing posted a 28,000 increase, following a 23,000 gain the month before. Construction jobs advanced 22,000 after a 10,000 rise in June. Mining increased 8,000 in July after a 4,000 rise in June. Private service providing jobs decelerated to a gain of 140,000 after a boost of 232,000 in June. Slowing was seen in retail trade, education & health services, and professional & business services. Government jobs rose 11,000 after a 28,000 boost in June. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours, matching expectations. Growth in average hourly earnings was flat at 0.0 percent after a 0.2 percent rise in June. The median market forecast was for 0.2 percent. Overall, today's report is on the soft side and will not tip the Fed's hand to accelerate rate increases. On the news, equity futures rose somewhat.

Market Consensus before announcement Nonfarm payroll employment increased 288,000 in June after a 224,000 gain in May and a 304,000 rise in April. The net revision for the prior two months was up 29,000. April's gain was the first plus 300,000 figure since January 2012. The unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent in May. Expectations were for 6.3 percent. The U6 underemployment rate edged down to 12.1 percent from 12.2 percent in May. Turning back to the payroll report, private jobs gained 262,000 after a 224,000 boost the month before. Government jobs jumped 26,000 after being flat in May. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours. Growth in average hourly earnings held steady at 0.2 percent, also matching the consensus.

Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics