Industrial production

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Industrial Production

Released On 11/17/2014 9:15:00 AM For Oct, 2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Production - M/M change 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.2 % -0.1 % to 0.4 % -0.1 % Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 79.3 % 79.2 % 79.3 % 79.0 % to 79.4 % 78.9 % Manufacturing - M/M 0.5 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % 0.2 %

Highlights Industrial production for October slipped on comedowns in mining and utilities. Industrial production dipped 0.1 percent after jumping 0.8 percent in September. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. Manufacturing gained 0.2 percent after rebounding 0.2 percent in September. Expectations for the manufacturing component were for an increase of 0.3 percent. Mining declined 0.9 percent in October, following a 1.6 percent boost the month before. Utilities slipped 0.7 percent after a monthly 4.2 percent surge in September. The production of nondurable goods rose 0.3 percent and the production of durable goods edged up 0.1 percent. Among durable goods industries, machinery posted the largest increase, 1.3 percent, while wood products, computers and electronic products, and furniture and related products all recorded gains of more than 1/2 percent. These gains were partially offset by declines of more than 1 percent in the indexes for nonmetallic mineral products and for motor vehicles and parts. The decline in motor vehicles and parts resulted from a decrease in vehicle assemblies, which fell 400,000 units to an annual rate of 11.1 million. Production increased for most nondurable goods industries, with the largest advances recorded by chemicals and by plastics and rubber products; only the paper industry registered a decline. Overall capacity utilization posted at 78.9 percent in October versus 79.2 percent in September. The notable detail in today's report is that manufacturing remains on a moderate uptrend.

Recent History Of This Indicator Industrial production jumped an outsized 1.0 percent in September after a decline of 0.2 percent in August. Forecasts were for 0.4 percent. Yes, utilities were the big mover, spiking a monthly 3.9 percent, following a 1.2 percent gain the prior month. But manufacturing was solid, rebounding 0.5 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decline the month before. Mining advanced 1.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase in August. Overall capacity utilization jumped to 79.3 percent from 78.7 percent in August. Manufacturing appears to have regained some steam for the U.S. economy. The third quarter still appears likely to post moderately healthy growth.

Definition The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2007. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.  Why Investors Care

The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent. Data Source: Haver Analytics