Monday, August 24, 2020

CNN: Tracking America's recovery

 CNN: Tracking America's recovery https://www.cnn.com/business/us-economic-recovery-coronavirus

Tracking America's recovery

From your job to your home and your groceries, you know Covid-19 has disrupted every aspect of your life. This dashboard shows how things have changed, and will track the recovery in detail.

Today's news:

  • How long until the US economy is back to normal? The new Back-to-Normal Index launched today by CNN Business and Moody's Analytics shows we still have a long way to go. Explore the index below.

  • Separately, members of the National Association of Business Economists expect economic activity won't return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022.

The Back-to-Normal Index

The pandemic economy is far from normal. So Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business have partnered to create a proprietary Back-to-Normal Index, comprised of 37 national and seven state-level indicators. The index ranges from zero, representing no economic activity, to 100%, representing the economy returning to its pre-pandemic level in March.
United States

78%

The economy in the United States  is operating at 78% of where
it was in early March.

New coronavirus
cases in the last 7 days
320,800
Number of states that improved last week46
0
100 = Normal

Learn how we created the Back-to-Normal Index

Source: Moody's AnalyticsJHU CSSE COVID-19 DataData as of August 21, 2020

Your Job

Essential workers in hospitals and grocery stores were hailed as everyday heroes, office workers shifted to working from home, and millions of other Americans filed for unemployment. It's safe to say — your job might never be the same after the pandemic.

US unemployment claims

More than 14M Americans remain on unemployment rolls, and this chart doesn’t even include the millions of recipients in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. Click above to see how many Americans are filing initial, first-time claims, versus "continued" claims for their second week of unemployment benefits or more.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug05M10M15M20M25MAug 0814.8M
Note: Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Dept. of Labor via FREDData as of August 20, 2020

Unemployment claims by state

How many people in your state filed for their second week or more of unemployment benefits last week? Scroll over the map to see.

Percent of labor force filing ongoing claims
 0% to 5%
 6% to 10%
 11% to 15%
 16% to 20%
 21% or more
Note: Seasonally adjusted continued claims as a percent of the March labor force
Source: US Dept. of Labor via FREDData as of August 24, 2020

Employment by sector

All Sectors

The pandemic hit every industry, and as of July, most sectors still had far fewer jobs compared to a year ago. Use the drop-down menu to see job losses in industry sub-sectors.

-30%-15%0%15%30%FinancialHealth CareConstructionGovernmentRetailManufacturingReal EstateProfessionalServicesTransportationEducationInformationMining &LoggingLeisure
Note: Seasonally adjusted, percent change from year ago
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FREDData as of August 07, 2020

Hours worked at small businesses

United States
Use the drop-down menu to the right to see how dramatically small businesses have slashed work hours below the pre-pandemic norm in your state.
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug-80%-60%-40%-20%0%Aug 22-25.5%
Source: HomebaseData as of August 24, 2020

Your Home

It definitely got harder to sell your home during the pandemic. No open houses. Virtual closings. And many owners hesitated to put their homes on the market. Thanks to the Fed's stimulus efforts, though, you may be able to refinance or take out a mortgage at record low rates.

Real estate listings

Owners have been reluctant to put homes up for sale during the crisis, exacerbating America's housing crunch.
Change in new listings from same week last year
 30% or more
 16% to 30%
 6% to 15%
 -5% to 5%
 -15% to -6%
 -30% to -16%
 Less than -30%
Source: Zillow.com ResearchData as of August 14, 2020

30-year mortgage rate

It's one of the cheapest times in history to take out a mortgage. But low rates can only boost the housing market so much.
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug2.8%3.0%3.2%3.4%3.6%3.8%Aug 202.99%
Source: Freddie Mac via FREDData as of August 20, 2020

Your Investments

Resist the temptation to check your 401(k) every day. Although stocks have made a comeback faster than other parts of the US economy, Wall Street insiders are bracing for volatility ahead of the November election.

Dow Jones Industrial Avg

28,206.76276.430.99%
The pandemic sent stocks into bear market territory, with the Dow falling 34% between its all-time high on February 19 and March 23. Since then, stocks have started to recover.
Dow Jones Chart
Source: CNN BusinessData as of August 24 11:56 a.m ET

Fear and Greed

Early in the pandemic, investors operated out of extreme fear. Now they're tilting slightly into greed territory.
Fear And Greed
Source: CNN BusinessData as of August 24 11:38 a.m ET

Your Money

Your income and savings might have changed dramatically since March. During the pandemic, Americans have tightened their spending and chosen to save more, as they grapple with a historically weak job market.

Personal savings rate

The personal savings rate — which measures the portion of income that Americans don't spend or pay out in taxes — surged in April as people received relief checks from the government. Then it fell in May and June.

JanFebMarAprMayJun10%20%30%Jun 0119%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via FREDData as of July 31, 2020

Household expenses

Americans' spending on household expenses, including food, clothing, housing, health care, transportation and recreation, plunged in the early weeks of the pandemic. But it's been rising since the low in April.

JanFebMarAprMayJun$11T$12T$13TJun 01$12.1T
Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisData as of August 23, 2020

Consumer loans

Americans are spending far less on their credit cards than they did before the pandemic, leading to an unprecedented decline in consumer borrowing.
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug$760B$780B$800B$820B$840B$860BAug 12$754.8B
Note: Seasonally adjusted

Your Leisure

When's the last time you dined in a restaurant or went to the movies? If it's been months, you're not alone. The pandemic brought these leisure activities to a halt.

Restaurant reservations

United States

Many restaurants shifted to takeout-only in March. And although some have reopened since then, as of July, dining-in remains well below normal in most states.

FebMarAprMayJunJulAug-100%-50%0%Aug 23-47.0%
Source: OpenTableData as of August 24, 2020

Box office sales

Most movie theaters closed in response to stay-at-home orders. AMC Theaters, the world's biggest movie theater chain, has delayed its reopenings to "mid-to-late August".

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug$0$100M$200MAug 20$2.5M
Source: Box Office Mojo by IMDbProData as of August 24, 2020

Your Travel

Early in the pandemic, you may have marveled at low gas prices in your area, but that was in large part because many Americans no longer commute to work. They've stopped flying, too.

Travelers at TSA checkpoints

The number of travelers processed through TSA security lines is still just a fraction of where it was last year.

MarAprMayJunJulAug01M2M3MAug 2320192.5M2020840K20192020
Source: Transportation Security AdministrationData as of August 24, 2020

Hotel occupancy

Travel restrictions and lockdowns led to a sudden glut of empty hotel rooms. Click above to see how hotel occupancy in your state changed compared to the same time last year.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug-60%-40%-20%0%Aug 15-30.00%
Source: STRData as of August 19, 2020

Gas prices

With far fewer people driving and a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the US national average gas price fell as low as $1.77 a gallon in late April before climbing again.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug


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