ISM non-manufacturing index

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ISM Non-Mfg Index

Released On 4/3/2013 10:00:00 AM For Mar, 2013 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Composite Index - Level 56.0  56.0  54.0  to 56.5  54.4

Highlights Employment is the weak link in March's non-manufacturing from the ISM whose headline composite index fell 1.6 points to a 54.4 level that indicates the slowest rate of monthly growth since July last year. The employment index is down a sizable 3.9 points to 53.3, still indicating monthly growth but -- in a parallel to this morning's ADP report -- monthly growth at a slowing rate. New orders are also slowing, down 3.6 points to 54.6. But backlog orders, unchanged at 54.5, continue to build in what is an especially good reading for this index. Business activity remains steady and strong and deliveries are slowing which is another sign of strength. This report, much like Monday's ISM report on manufacturing, has plenty of strength in some of the details. Growth remains solid and perhaps slowing now then is welcome, to keep activity within the rate of available capacity. Another positive in the report is an easing in price pressures, the result of lower fuel prices. The Dow, reacting to the headline and no doubt the employment reading, is moving to opening lows.

Market Consensus before announcement The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey rose nearly one point in February to a higher-than-expected level of 56.0 which indicated a stronger pace of overall growth relative to what was already a strong rate in January. This index covers the bulk of the economy-services, construction, mining, and agriculture. Forward momentum is moderately good as the new orders index was up a very sharp 3.8 points to 58.2 with backlogs posting a 5.5 point jump to a very strong 55.0.

Definition The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy—indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care

The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey. Data Source: Haver Analytics

ISM Manufacturing Index

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ISM Mfg Index

Released On 4/1/2013 10:00:00 AM For Mar, 2013 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual ISM Mfg Index - Level 54.2  54.0  51.6  to 55.0  51.3

Highlights Orders are coming into the manufacturing sector but not at a very fast rate, at least based on the ISM manufacturing report where the headline index slowed to 51.3 in March for a sizable decline from 54.2 and 53.1 in the prior two months. New orders fell to 51.4 for a 6.4 point decline from February and compared with 53.3 in January. New orders have been moving up and down with four sub-50 readings since June last year. But new export orders are very solid in the report, rising 2.5 points to a 56.0 level that's the best since April last year. And ISM's sample hasn't had to work down their backlogs which are at 51.0 for the second straight plus 50-reading that follows nine straight sub-50 readings. Employment is also very positive, at 54.2 to indicate the strongest rate of hiring since June. But that's where most of the good news stops with production growth slowing noticeably in the month. Deliveries picked up pace which is a sign of slack conditions. Inventories fell slightly to indicate that the sample is working down stocks. Today's report points to a slowing for the manufacturing sector, nothing dramatic and perhaps desirable as it limits the risk of excess and unsustainable activity. Still, today's report isn't likely to be a plus for today's markets.

Market Consensus before announcement The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey for February offered very good news, reflected in a 1.1 point gain for the headline index to 54.2, and acceleration in new orders which jumped 4.5 points to a very strong 57.8. A plus in this report was strength in new orders for exports, which accelerated to 53.5 for a 3-1/2 point gain. Total backlogs were especially strong in the ISM report, at 55.0 for a big 7-1/2 point gain.

Definition The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where readings above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.  Why Investors Care

The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Producer Price Index

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Producer Price Index Released On 3/14/2013 8:30:00 AM For Feb, 2013 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual PPI - M/M change 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.2 % to 1.5 % 0.7 % PPI -Yr/Yr change 1.4 % 1.8 % PPI less food & energy - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 % PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change 1.8 % 1.7 % Highlights Energy inflation was back in February, boosting the headline rate for the PPI. The core, however, remained moderate. The February producer price index increased a strong 0.7 percent, following a rebound of 0.2 percent in January. The February figure posted higher than market expectations for a 0.6 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.2 percent-matching the prior month's pace. The consensus projected a 0.2 percent increase. Food prices declined 0.5 percent after jumping 0.7 percent in January. Energy costs in February accelerated to a 3.0 percent boost, following a 0.4 percent decline the prior month. Gasoline spiked 7.2 percent, following a monthly decrease of 2.1 percent in January. Within the core, about twenty percent of the February increase can be traced to prices for pharmaceutical preparations, which moved up 0.2 percent. An advance in the index for plastic products also contributed to higher prices for finished goods less foods and energy. Passenger car prices gained 0.3 percent while light trucks rose 0.1 percent. For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in posted at 1.8 percent, compared to 1.4 percent in January (seasonally adjusted). The core rate was up 1.7 percent versus 1.8 percent in January. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for February, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.7 percent, while the core was up 1.7 percent. Market Consensus before announcement The producer price index rebounded 0.2 percent, following a dip of 0.3 percent the prior month. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, gained 0.2 percent, following a rise of 0.1 percent in December. Food inflation increased 0.7 after dropping 0.8 percent in December. Energy costs in January slipped another 0.4 percent, following a decline of 0.6 percent in December. Gasoline declined 2.1 percent after decreasing 1.8 percent in December. Within the core, most of the January advance can be traced to a 2.5 percent rise in the index for pharmaceutical preparations. While crude oil prices dipped in early March, the February average was up and suggests upward pressure on the headline number for the PPI. Definition The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices received by producers.  Why Investors Care   It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Please note: Your browser must display iFrames to view the Interactive charts.   2013 Release Schedule Released On: 1/15 2/20 3/14 4/12 5/15 6/14 7/12 8/14 9/13 10/11 11/14 12/13 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov   Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2013 Econoday, Inc.  powered by

Industrial production

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Industrial Production

Released On 3/15/2013 9:11:00 AM For Feb, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Production - M/M change -0.1 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.2 % to 1.0 % 0.7 % Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 79.1 % 79.2 % 79.4 % 79.0 % to 79.6 % 79.6 % Manufacturing - M/M -0.4 % -0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.7 % 0.8 %

Highlights Today's industrial production report was released early-at 9:11 a.m. ET. Manufacturing in in February improved sharply. Overall industrial production jumped 0.7 percent in February after no change in January (originally down 0.1 percent). Market expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain in February for overall production. The manufacturing component rebounded 0.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent drop in January. Analysts projected a 0.3 percent rise for the manufacturing component. The rate of motor assemblies remained strong and rose 3.6 percent after a 4.9 percent drop in January. Other industries generally showed healthy gains. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing gained 0.6 percent in February after a 0.1 percent increase the prior month. The output of utilities increased 1.6 percent in February while production at mines dipped 0.3 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry advanced to 79.6 percent from 79.2 percent in January. Expectations were for 79.4 percent. Manufacturing may be making a comeback after a soft January. Today's numbers will likely nudge up estimates for first quarter GDP. The report also will boost debate next week within the Fed on when to unwind easy monetary policy. The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.

Market Consensus before announcement Industrial production in January fell back but after strong gains in December and November. Industrial production in January slipped 0.1 percent, following an advance of 0.4 percent the month before and a 1.4 percent jump in November. In January, the manufacturing component declined 0.4 percent, following a boost of 1.1 percent in December and an increase of 1.7 percent in November. The output of utilities gained 3.5 percent in January while production at mines fell 1.0 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry eased to 79.1 percent from 79.3 percent in December. Looking ahead, national manufacturing growth is likely to be on the plus side as production worker hours rebounded 0.5 percent in February. This should boost the manufacturing component in industrial production.

Definition The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2007. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.  Why Investors Care

The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Working from home - telecommuting

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/14/news/economy/telecommuting-survey/index.html

4 myths about the spending cuts

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/01/news/economy/spending-cuts/index.html

Cramer: The Best-Run U.S. Companies

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47174146/page/1