Historical unemployment

 Most recent unemployment rate:

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456022&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

http://theintrinsicvalue.com/research/current-unemployment-rate-within-a-long-run-context

Historical unemployment




Civilian participation rate






http://seekingalpha.com/article/155676-unemployment-historical-chart-sends-scary-message

GDP first quarter 2013

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456055&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

GDP

Released On 4/26/2013 8:30:00 AM For Q1:13 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 0.4 % 3.1 % 2.3 % to 3.3 % 2.5 % GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.0 % 1.4 % 0.9 % to 1.8 % 1.2 %

Highlights The economy had some bounce in the first quarter as GDP growth showed some acceleration. But the details are not as encouraging as the headline. The first quarter grew 2.5 percent after a modest 0.4 gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts forecast a 3.1 percent boost in the first quarter. Demand growth was very sluggish with weakest component being government purchases while the bright spot was consumer spending. Final sales of domestic product increased 1.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) improved to a 1.9 percent boost, after a 1.5 percent gain in the fourth quarter. By components, inventory investment jumped to $50.3 billion from $13.3 billion. The big question is whether the second quarter boost was planned or unplanned. Personal consumption accelerated to 3.2 percent from an annualized 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Also on the positive side, residential investment gained 12.6 percent, though at a slower pace than 17.6 percent the quarter before. Nonresidential fixed investment advanced but also at a softer rate, 2.1 percent versus the fourth quarter's 13.2 percent. On the downside, government purchases fell 4.1 percent, but not as much as the 7.0 percent annualized drop the quarter before. Slowing global growth is showing up as the net export gap worsened to $400.8 billion from $384.7 billion. Headline inflation for the GDP price index showed mild acceleration to an annualized 1.2 percent in the first quarter from 1.0 percent the prior quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation pressure posted at 1.5 percent, compared 1.3 percent the prior quarter. While the headline disappointed, it did show improvement. However, the component detail suggests less forward momentum than the overall number. On the news, equity futures eased somewhat.

Market Consensus before announcement GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of plus 0.4 percent from the second estimate of 0.1 percent and compared to a third quarter gain of 3.1 percent. The upward revision was largely due to a smaller net export gap, stronger growth in nonresidential structures, and somewhat higher inventory growth. Demand numbers were revised up slightly. Final sales of domestic product came in at 1.9 percent-up from the second estimate of 1.7 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were nudged up to 1.5 percent versus the second estimate of 1.4 percent. Headline inflation for the GDP price index posted a 1.0 percent annualized inflation rate versus the second estimate of 0.9 percent. When excluding food and energy, inflation was revised to 1.3 percent, versus the second estimate of 1.2 percent.

Definition Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable. Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Producer price index for May 2013

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456115&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

Producer Price Index

Released On 4/12/2013 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2013 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual PPI - M/M change 0.7 % -0.2 % -0.7 % to 0.5 % -0.6 % PPI -Yr/Yr change 1.8 % 1.1 % PPI less food & energy - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % -0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 % PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change 1.7 % 1.7 %

Highlights The headline number was much weaker than expected but it was almost all related to a fall in gasoline prices. The March producer price index fell back 0.6 percent after a strong 0.7 percent boost in February. Market expectations were for a 0.2 percent decline. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, increased 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent in February. Analysts expected a 0.2 percent increase. Food prices rebounded 0.8 percent after falling 0.5 in February. Energy costs in March dropped 3.4 percent, following a 3.0 percent boost the month before. Gasoline fell 6.8 percent after spiking 7.2 percent in February. Within the core, almost one-quarter of the March advance can be traced to prices for civilian aircraft, which rose 0.7 percent. Also, pharmaceuticals increased 0.4 percent. Key players in the core, passenger car prices gained 0.2 percent while light trucks were flat. For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate eased to 1.1 percent from 1.8 percent February (seasonally adjusted). The core rate held steady at 1.7 percent. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for February, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.1 percent, while the core was up 1.7 percent.

Market Consensus before announcement The producer price index in February producer price index increased a strong 0.7 percent, following a rebound of 0.2 percent in January. The boost was largely energy related. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.2 percent-matching the prior month's pace. Food prices declined 0.5 percent after jumping 0.7 percent in January. Energy costs in February accelerated to a 3.0 percent boost, following a 0.4 percent decline the prior month. Gasoline spiked 7.2 percent, following a monthly decrease of 2.1 percent in January. Within the core, about 20 percent of the February increase was traced to prices for pharmaceutical preparations, which moved up 0.2 percent. Passenger car prices gained 0.3 percent while light trucks rose 0.1 percent.

Definition The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. The headline PPI (for finished goods) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods for prices received by producers.  Why Investors Care

It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Retail sales for March 2013

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Retail Sales

Released On 4/12/2013 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Retail Sales - M/M change 1.1 % 1.0 % 0.0 % -0.6 % to 0.7 % -0.4 % Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 1.0 % 0.1 % -0.2 % to 0.8 % -0.4 % Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % -0.1 % to 0.6 % -0.1 %

Highlights Retail sales in March came in below expectation and weakness was broad based. Retail sales declined 0.4 percent, following a surge of 1.0 percent in February (originally up 1.1 percent). Market expectations were for no change. Ex-auto sales in March declined 0.4 percent after a jump of 1.0 percent in February (originally up 1.0 percent). The consensus projected a 0.1 percent advance for March. Gasoline sales were down significantly on lower prices. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales slipped 0.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in February (originally up 0.4 percent). Analysts forecast a 0.3 percent gain. Motor vehicle sales decreased 0.6 percent, following a 1.3 percent rise in February. On lower prices, gasoline sales fell 2.2 percent after spiking 5.4 percent in February. Core subcomponent weakness was broad based with decreases seen in electronics & appliances; food & beverage stores; health & personal care; sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores; and general merchandise. Gains were seen in furniture & furnishings; building materials & garden equipment; clothing & accessories; miscellaneous store retailers; nonstore retailers; and food services & drinking places. Higher payroll taxes appear to be finally kicking in-cutting into consumer spending. However, atypically cold weather in March likely dampened sales in a number of subcomponents-including clothing & accessories; building materials & garden equipment; and general merchandise. On the news, equity futures dipped.

Market Consensus before announcement Retail sales in February were strong despite payroll tax increases and delayed income tax refunds. Retail sales jumped 1.1 percent, following a rise of 0.2 percent in January. Motor vehicle sales rebounded a sizeable 1.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent dip in January. Ex-auto sales in February increased 1.0 percent, following boost of 0.4 percent the month before. On higher prices, gasoline sales spiked a monthly 5.0 percent in February, following a 0.7 percent increase the prior month. Gasoline sales were up significantly. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales gained 0.4 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in January. Core subcomponent strength was widely scattered. For the upcoming March numbers, cool weather may have dampened sales of spring apparel while an early Easter may have boosted sales. Also, consumers may be noticing reduced take home pay due to higher payroll taxes. Flat unit new motor vehicle sales could tip the auto component in either direction, depending on price discounting for the month.

Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care

Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Top 10 touraround towns

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46329421/page/1

Employment situation for March 2013

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456022&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0

Employment Situation

Released On 4/5/2013 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 236,000  268,000  193,000  170,000  to 230,000  88,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 7.7 % 7.7 % 7.6 % to 7.8 % 7.6 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.0 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 246,000  254,000  200,000  175,000  to 240,000  95,000

Highlights Today's employment report was very disappointing even though the unemployment rate eased-for the wrong reason. Total payroll jobs rose a meager 88,000 after gaining 268,000 in February (originally up 236,000). Analysts forecast a 193,000 rise for March. The net revisions for January and February were up 61,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 7.6 percent in March from 7.7 percent the prior month. The consensus projected a 7.7 percent unemployment rate. The decline was due to a drop in the labor force. Turning back to payroll data, private payrolls increased 95,000 after rising 254,000 in February (originally 246,000). Expectations were for a 200,000 gain. In the private sector, relative strength was service-providing sectors-which were still soft. Service-providing jobs increased 79,000 after a 181,000 rise in February. The March rise was led by subcomponents for healthcare, up 23,400; temporary help, up 20,300; and leisure, up 17,000. The impact of higher payroll taxes finally may be kicking in as retail jobs fell 24,100. Goods-producing jobs rose 16,000 after a 73,000 jump in February. Construction advanced 18,000 in the latest month with mining edging up 1,000. Manufacturing employment slipped 3,000. Government jobs declined 7,000 in March, following an increase of 14,000 the month before. Earnings were dead in the water. Average hourly earnings were flat in March, following a modest improvement of 0.1 percent for February. Analysts called for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek edged up to 34.6 hours in March from 34.5 hours the prior month. The market consensus was for 34.5 hours. Turning to detail for the household survey, household employment in March fell 206,000 after a 170,000 gain the month before. The labor force dropped even faster, down 496,000 after a 130,000 dip in February. Today's report can only be described as dismal despite the dip in the unemployment rate. The sharp deceleration in hiring will keep Fed policy loose even though the unemployment rate is now part of its policy guidance. The Fed has clarified that it is looking at a broad range of labor market measures and outside of the unemployment rate, other measures showed little progress. And the Fed will know that the unemployment rate slipped for the wrong reason-more discouraged workers. On the news, equity futures declined significantly.

Market Consensus before announcement Nonfarm payroll employment was much stronger than expected in February. They posted a gain of 236,000, following an increase of 119,000 in January and an increase of 219,000 in December. The unemployment rate declined to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in January. Private payrolls advanced 246,000 in February, following a boost of 140,000 in January. In the private sector, strength was seen in both goods-producing and service-providing sectors but led by the latter. Service-providing jobs increased 179,000 after a 99,000 rise in January. Goods-producing jobs jumped 67,000 after a 41,000 gain in January. Government jobs declined 10,000 in February, following a drop of 21,000 the month before. Earnings have been oscillating but upward. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2 percent in February, following a gain of 0.1 percent January. The average workweek edged up to 34.5 hours in February from 34.4 hours the month before.

Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.  Why Investors Care

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics