House prices

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FHFA House Price Index

Released On 2/25/2014 9:00:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual M/M change 0.1 % -0.1 % 0.3 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.8 % Y/Y change 7.6 % 7.3 % 7.7 %

Highlights Home prices, according to the FHFA rebounded 0.8 percent in December after easing 0.1 percent the month before. But excluding some monthly volatility, the trend definitely has been upward. Prices have risen on a quarterly basis for ten quarterly in a row. The December increase topped expectations for a 0.3 percent monthly boost. Five Census divisions posted increases, one was flat, and two declined. On a year-ago basis, FHFA home prices for the U.S. were up 7.7 percent versus 7.3 percent in November. Rising home prices have helped support consumer confidence as home equity is returning, albeit moderately. Today's Case-Shiller report also pointed to improvement in home prices.

Market Consensus before announcement The FHFA purchase only house price index for November rose a modest 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjust basis, following a 0.5 percent rise the prior month. The November HPI is the 22nd consecutive monthly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index. Five of nine Census regions showed gains in the latest month while three declined and one was unchanged.

Definition The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  Why Investors Care

The FHFA Home Price Index captures price data for an important segment of the housing market - home purchases with mortgages financed or bundled by federal housing agencies. However, this HPI does not cover high end housing. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Taxes and economic growth

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/04/25/of-course-higher-taxes-slow-growth-a-response-to-diamond-and-saez/

http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/charts/2014/top10-percent-income-earners-560.jpg

Consumer sentiment

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Personal Income in December 2013

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2014 Economic Calendar

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Personal Income and Outlays Released On 1/31/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Personal Income - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.4 % 0.0 % Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.4 % PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.2 % Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 % Personal Income - Yr/Yr change 2.3 % 2.3 % -0.8 % Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change 3.5 % 3.3 % 3.6 % PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.1 % Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.1 % 1.2 % Highlights Personal income was flat in December while spending was up. Income sluggishness may have been weather related. Personal income was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in November. Markets expected a 0.2 percent rise. The wages & salaries component posted flat in December, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Personal spending, however, was moderately strong, rising 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent boost in November. Spending was led by a 1.5 percent jump in nondurables with services gaining 0.4 percent. Durables declined 1.8 percent after a 1.8 percent increase the month before. The rise in personal consumption was not just price related. Real spending increased 0.2 percent in December after an increase of 0.6 percent in November. Headline inflation warmed a bit with a reading of 0.2 percent after no change in November. Excluding food and energy, PCE price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in December, matching the November pace. On a year ago basis, headline inflation was 1.1 percent in December versus 0.9 percent the month before. Core inflation nudged up to 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent. The year ago numbers are still well below the Fed's goal of 2 percent inflation. Overall, the consumer is still contributing to the recovery in terms of spending. However, on the income side it likely is a good idea to wait for January data to see how much of income sluggishness was weather related even though soft employment growth was a contributing factor. Market Consensus before announcement Personal income in November rebounded 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in October. But the important wages and salaries component improved to a 0.4 percent gain in November after rising 0.1 percent the month before. Tugging down on personal income was the proprietors' income category which fell 1.3 percent after a 1.7 percent boost in October. The swing was in the farm subcomponent. Spending also accelerated a bit, jumping 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent boost in October. No surprise, the latest gain was led by durables (largely motor vehicles) up 1.9 percent, following a 1.0 percent increase in October. Nondurables declined 0.4 percent after a 0.4 percent decrease in October. Lower gasoline prices likely played a role in November. Services jumped 0.6 in November, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. Inflation was non-existent. Headline inflation was unchanged on the month for both November and October. Core inflation rose 0.1 percent in each of the latest two months. On a year-ago basis, overall PCE price inflation posted at 0.9 percent in November, compared to 0.7 percent in October. Core inflation came in at 1.1 percent in both November and October. Definition Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.  Why Investors Care   Changes in taxes or social security cost of living adjustments can cause some sharp variations in monthly disposable income growth. However, on the whole, monthly changes in disposable income fluctuate less than monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Monthly changes in personal consumption expenditures are usually skewed by large changes in spending on durable goods. Spending on nondurable goods and services tend to be less volatile from one month to the next. Data Source: Haver Analytics   Please note: Your browser must display iFrames to view the Interactive charts.

Super Bowl ads or players’ salaries: Which cost more?

By Lauren LysterJanuary 31, 2014 2:12 PMDaily Ticker

It's Super Bowl time. The biggest sporting event of the year has arrived and this year's game at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey has been billed as the most expensive one yet.

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• Super Leaders: Are You More Like Manning or Wilson? Entrepreneur

The Super Bowl also means hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to get in on the action, most of which has nothing to do with which team wins the game. We've followed the money in the above video, to show you where it's being spent and if it's paying off.

First, there are the ads.

According to The Los Angeles Times, 55 commercials will air during this year’s Super Bowl, with companies shelling out an average of $4 million for a 30-second spot. Advertisers spend as much as $2 million dollars to produce ads, which means a one-minute commercial can cost advertisers $10 million. That sounds like a lot and it is. Spending on ad time has gone up 70% alone in the last 10 years. 

Related: The best chicken wings and chili in the U.S.

Then there’s the money flowing into the local economy where the Super Bowl is held. The New York/New Jersy Super Bowl Host Committee estimates this year's game will bring $500 million to $600 million to New York and New Jersey. That sounds impactful, but some sports economists have said it’s really more likely to be a tenth of that judging by past Super Bowls.

Looking back at the 1999 Super Bowl in Miami, for example, the NFL claimed it generated close to $400 million, while a separate study by Robert Baade, a professor at Lake Forest College in Illinois, found it added under $40 million to South Florida’s economy.

Philip Porter, an economics professor at the University of South Florida, says one reason for the discrepancy is that visitors during game-week spend money on NFL souvenirs and at NFL-funded events. This year, for example, Times Square has been transformed into "Super Bowl Boulevard" with free activities for visitors and a $5 toboggan run that benefits charity.So fewer dollars are actually flowing into local businesses than you might think.

Related: Mixed Martial Arts: A Massive Lawsuit Waiting to Happen?

And of course, serious cash has gone into paying the athletes that will be playing Sunday. In the mid-1990s, the NFL instituted a salary capso that large and smaller market teams could compete on more even footing. But that doesn’t mean teams spend their money the same way.

Related: College football fumbles, Norhwestern's team wants to unionize

Looking at how this year’s quarterbacks stack up, the Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning made $15 million in 2013, while Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks made just over $526,000. (Wilson is a rookie.)

All this money spent and to think, the price for sitting on your couch watching the game is free.

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New home sales for

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New Home Sales

Released On 1/27/2014 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual New Home Sales - Level - SAAR 464 K 445 K 450 K 420 K to 471 K 414 K

Highlights New home sales had been a bright spot in the housing sector -- but not any more. Sales of new homes nose dived in December, to a 414,000 annual rate that's below the low end estimate of Econoday's consensus. More bad news comes from downward revisions that total 30,000 in the prior two months. The drop in sales gave a lift to supply, at least supply relative to sales which is at 5.0 months vs 4.7 months in November. But the total number of new homes on the market actually fell, down 5,000 to an adjusted 171,000. High prices are no doubt a factor behind the sales weakness but not a pronounced factor. The median price rose 0.6 percent to $270,200 with the year-on-year rate very modest at plus 4.6 percent which is right in line with the plus 4.6 percent year-on-year rate for sales. Bad weather may have played a factor in December's disappointment but heavy weather is common to all Decembers. Unattractive mortgage rates and the still soft jobs market appear to be holding down housing noticeably. On Thursday, watch for pending home sales data which track initial contract signings for sales of existing homes. The Dow is little changed following today's results.

Market Consensus before announcement New home sales fell 2.1 percent in a deceptive November reading where the 464,000 annual sales rate exceeded what were solid expectations but looked soft against a sharply upward revised October, now at 474,000 versus an initial reading of 444,000. Underscoring the October revision was an even sharper upward revision to September, to 403,000 from 354,000. One factor favoring sellers is supply which was very thin at 4.3 months at the current sales rate versus 4.5 months in October. New homes on the market fell 12,000 in the month to 167,000.

Definition New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.  Why Investors Care

There is no question that lower interest rates boost home sales. Other factors also impact housing decisions, such as employment and income growth, and wealth stemming from stock market gains. Data Source: Haver Analytics

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Labor market report for December

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461114&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

2014 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation Released On 1/10/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 203,000  241,000  200,000  120,000  to 225,000  74,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 7.0 % 7.0 % 6.9 % to 7.1 % 6.7 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.1 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.4 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 196,000  226,000  189,000  120,000  to 220,000  87,000  Highlights Not tapering likely is back on the Fed's table for the next policy meeting-yes, not tapering further. Total payroll jobs in December grew a meager 74,000, following a revised increase of 241,000 for November (originally up 203,000) and after a revised gain of 200,000 for October (previous estimate was 200,000). Expectations were for a 200,000 increase. The net revisions for October and November were up 38,000. Private payrolls gained 87,000 after rising 226,000 in November. Expectations were for a 189,000 boost in December. The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent from 7.0 percent in November. The consensus expected a 7.0 percent unemployment rate. The rate declined due to a sharp drop in the labor force. Household employment rose 143,000 in December but the labor force dropped 347,000. Turning back to the payroll portion of the report, goods-producing jobs declined by 3,000 after a 51,000 boost in November. Construction dropped 16,000 in December, following a 19,000 increase the month before. The monthly swings in this subcomponent can be affected by large seasonal factors this time of year. Manufacturing jobs advanced 9,000 after a 31,000 gain in November. Private service-providing jobs increased 90,000, following a 175,000 boost in November. Employment in retail trade rose by 55,000 in December. In December, wholesale trade added 15,000 jobs. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in December (+19,000). Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in December, while employment in accounting and bookkeeping services declined by 25,000. Government contracted by 13,000 after rising 15,000 in November. Wage growth came in a modest 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in November. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek nudged down to 34.4 hours from 34.5 hours. The median forecast was for 34.5 hours. The December jobs report was decidedly weaker than expected and the decline in the unemployment rate was actually a negative due to the basis for the dip. The big question is whether the latest employment report was an aberration or not. Other employment data have been more favorable, including ADP and various surveys. On the news, equity futures were down somewhat. Market Consensus before announcement Nonfarm payroll employment in November advanced 203,000, following an increase of 200,000 for October and after a gain of 175,000 for September. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The November number was the lowest in five years. Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours. Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care   During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics   The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics       2014 Release Schedule Released On: 1/10 2/7 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov   Share this page 4 Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2014 Econoday, Inc. Unemployment lower, but few jobs created and more people leaving labor force http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Job-Growth-employment-labor/2014/01/11/id/546544?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed Help Wanted: Labor-Force Participation Rate Returns to 35-Year Low Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 10:58 AM Share: A    A   |    Email Us   |    Print   |    Forward Article  |    Get Short Link inShare1 U.S. employers hired the fewest workers in nearly three years in December, but the setback was likely to be temporary amid signs that unusually cold weather may have had an impact. The surprisingly weak job growth figures reported by the Labor Department on Friday, however, could cause some discomfort at the Federal Reserve, which last month announced plans to scale back its massive monetary stimulus program. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well short of the 200,000 jobs or so that most economists had expected. Editor’s Note: Retire 10 Years Earlier With These 4 Stocks  While the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage point to 6.7 percent, its lowest level since October 2008, the decline mostly reflected people leaving the labor force. Michael Feroli, an economist with JPMorgan Chase in New York, called the report "an ugly mix" but said: "We'd guess the underlying trend in job growth hasn't materially shifted." U.S. stock prices were little changed, but yields on benchmark Treasury debt fell by the most since October. The U.S. dollar slipped against other currencies as traders bet economic weakness would further delay any eventual increase in interest rates by the Fed. The step back in hiring was at odds with other indicators that have painted an upbeat picture of the jobs market. Tempering the blow, the government's survey of employers found 38,000 more jobs were added in November than previously reported. For all of 2013, the economy created 2.2 million jobs. Construction employment fell last month for the first time since May and leisure and hospitality payrolls rose only marginally, providing hints that extremely cold weather in some parts of the country had held back hiring. In addition, transportation payrolls recorded their first decline in five months, and the average workweek for all workers slipped by a tenth of an hour to 34.4 hours. The smaller survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived showed 273,000 people stayed at home because of the bad weather, the most since 1977 and well above the 100,000 average for the month of December. Economists said the cold weather may have dampened job growth by as much as 100,000 last month. "We do not think that the disappointing December payroll number marks the beginning of a renewed downward trend," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York. "We continue to expect nonfarm payrolls will accelerate towards 200,000 to 225,000 in the course of this year." The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell 0.2 percentage point to 62.8 percent, returning to the more than 35-year low hit in October. The decline, which may have partly reflected end-of-year retirements, accounted for two-thirds of the drop in the jobless rate, although a gauge of employment in the household survey also rose. FED SEEN HOLDING COURSE The report offered a cautionary note after a string of data - from consumer spending and trade to industrial production - that had suggested the economy ended 2013 on strong footing and was positioned to strengthen further this year. Other data on Friday showed wholesale inventories rose more than expected in November, leading some economists to upgrade their forecasts for fourth-quarter growth. GDP growth this year is expected to top 3 percent, a sharp acceleration from the 1.7 percent forecast for 2013. In a sign of growing confidence in the economy's prospects, the Fed announced in December that it would trim its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion. Despite the weaker-than-expected jobs data, most economists held to the view that the Fed would enact a further, similar-sized cut at its next meeting on January 28-29. Fifty-seven of 61 economists polled by Reuters after the report said they expected the U.S. central bank to trim its purchases by $10 billion at each of its meetings this year. "I don't think the Fed is going to change its mind," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. "The trend, in a broad sense, still looks quite favorable." Indeed, two Fed officials, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Richmond Fed chief Jeffrey Lacker, suggested as much. "I would be disinclined to react to one month's number," Bullard said. "For now we're on a program where we're likely to continue to taper (asset purchases) at subsequent meetings. NOT ALL WEATHER The private sector accounted for all the gains in employment last month, with government payrolls falling 13,000 after rising 15,000 in November. Manufacturing employment rose 9,000. While that represented a fifth straight month of gains, it marked a slowdown from November's hefty 31,000 count. The number of construction jobs fell 16,000, snapping six consecutive monthly increases. Utilities jobs fell by the most in a year. Not all the job losses could be blamed on the weather. The information sector shed 12,000 positions and healthcare employment fell for only the second time since 1990. Employment in the retail sector accelerated after slowing in November. There were also payroll gains in professional and business services. Average hourly earnings rose two cents. Over the past 12 months, hourly earnings have risen only 1.8 percent, a sign the tepid wage gains that have characterized the U.S. economic recovery continue. Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Job-Growth-employment-labor/2014/01/11/id/546544#ixzz2qUx0Ysc2 Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now! ECONOMIST: ignore jobs report http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Zandi-jobs-report-Goolsbee/2014/01/10/id/546417?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed Moody's Zandi: Don't Pay Attention to Jobs Report Numbers Friday, 10 Jan 2014 10:48 AM By Dan Weil Share: A    A   |    Email Us   |    Print   |    Forward Article  |    Get Short Link inShare Friday's weak jobs report for December doesn't provide a true picture of the economy, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. Non-farm payrolls gained only 74,000 last month, compared with a median forecast of 197,000 in Bloomberg's survey of economists. Payrolls were revised to 241,000 in November "I wouldn't pay any attention at all to these numbers. They're not consistent with anything — GDP, the ISM survey, the ADP report," Zandi told CNBC. Editor’s Note: 250% Gains Bagged Using Secret Calendar (See Video) "Next month we'll get the benchmark revisions and they'll be revised up and revised away." GDP grew 4.1 percent in the third quarter, and this week's ADP survey showed the economy added 238,000 private sector jobs in December. "We've turned the corner," Zandi said. "GDP growth in the second half of the year is 4 percent." University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee says the financial community overreacts to each month's employment news. "Last month we got a big number, and everyone said we've turned the corner. This one is probably too extreme," he told CNBC. "We haven't fully turned the corner any more than we were down in the dumps," Goolsbee noted. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, told Bloomberg the report "is a reminder that the [labor market] improvement is not going to be a straight line." He said weather probably played a big role in the weak December number. Inclement weather kept 273,000 people from work last month. But even accounting for that, "it still looks pretty soft," especially in construction, Feroli says. Editor’s Note: 250% Gains Bagged Using Secret Calendar (See Video) Related Stories: Morici: Economy Added Only 74,000 Jobs in December Ameriprise Economist Russell Price: US Isn't Improving 'as Much as We Thought' as More Quit Job Hunt © 2014 Moneynews. All rights reserved. Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Zandi-jobs-report-Goolsbee/2014/01/10/id/546417#ixzz2qUxQrNzJ Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now! powered by