Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-13-2035
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2013
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate, at 7.2 percent, changed little in September but has declined by
0.4 percentage point since June. The number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, was
also little changed over the month; however, unemployment has decreased by 522,000 since
June. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult
women (6.2 percent), teenagers (21.4 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (12.9 percent),
and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change in September. The jobless rate for
Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.
(See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In September, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was little changed at 4.1 million. These individuals accounted for 36.9 percent of the
unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 725,000 over the past
year. (See table A-12.)
Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-
population ratio at 58.6 percent, were unchanged in September. Over the year, the labor
force participation rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point, while the employment-
population ratio has changed little. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged at 7.9 million in September. These
individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they
were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In September, 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down from
2.5 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals
were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 852,000 discouraged workers in September,
essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in September had not searched for work for reasons such as school
attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in September, with gains in
construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Over the prior
12 months, employment growth averaged 185,000 per month. (See table B-1.)
Employment in construction rose by 20,000 in September, after showing little change
over the prior 6 months.
Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 in September. Over the prior 12 months,
this industry added an average of 7,000 jobs per month.
Transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs in September. Most of the increase
occurred in transit and ground passenger transportation (+18,000).
In September, employment in professional and business services continued to expand
(+32,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth in this industry averaged
52,000 per month. Employment in temporary help services continued to trend up in
September (+20,000).
Within retail trade, job gains occurred in building material and garden supply stores
(+5,000) and in automobile dealers (+4,000). In the financial activities industry,
employment in credit intermediation and related activities declined by 8,000 in
September.
Employment in health care changed little (+7,000) in September. Thus far in 2013,
health care has added an average of 19,000 jobs per month, compared with an average
monthly increase of 27,000 in 2012.
Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places was
essentially unchanged over the month (-7,000). Job growth in this industry averaged
28,000 per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, manufacturing,
information, and government, showed little change in September.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in
September at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek was 40.8 hours, the same as
in August, and overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The average workweek for
production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged
at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
rose by 3 cents to $24.09. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 49
cents, or 2.1 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector
production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents to $20.24.
(See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +104,000 to
+89,000, and the change for August was revised from +169,000 to +193,000. With these
revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 9,000 more than previously
reported.
_____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday,
November 8, 2013, at 8:30 a.m. (EST). This release was originally scheduled
for Friday, November 1, 2013, but was rescheduled because of the recent partial
Federal government shutdown.
________________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Federal Government Shutdown |
| |
| The release of these data occurs about 2 weeks later than originally scheduled |
| because of the recent partial Federal government shutdown. Data collection for |
| the estimates in this release had been completed prior to the shutdown in |
| accordance with our normal schedule. However, the processing of some estimates |
| and the production of the Employment Situation news release were delayed due |
| to the shutdown. |
|________________________________________________________________________________|
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456028&cust=mam&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
| Employment Situation |
| Released On 10/22/2013 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2013 |
| Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change | 169,000 | 193,00 | 185,000 | 155,000 to 240,000 | 148,000 |
| Unemployment Rate - Level | 7.3 % | | 7.3 % | 7.1 % to 7.4 % | 7.2 % |
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change | 0.2 % | | 0.2 % | 0.1 % to 0.3 % | 0.1 % |
| Av Workweek - All Employees | 34.5 hrs | | 34.5 hrs | 34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs | 34.5 hrs |
| Private Payrolls - M/M change | 152,000 | 161,000 | 184,000 | 154,000 to 245,000 | 126,000 |
|
|
Highlights
The payroll data and household numbers were mixed in September at the headline level but soft in detail. Markets were looking over their collective shoulder at the Fed. Total payroll jobs in September advanced 148,000, following a revised increase of 193,000 for August (originally up 169,000) and after a revised gain of 89,000 for July (previous estimate was 104,000). The consensus forecast was for a 184,000 gain for the latest month. The net revisions for July and August were up 9,000.
The unemployment rate slipped to 7.2 percent after dipping to 7.3 percent in August. Analysts expected a 7.3 percent unemployment rate. But the improvement was largely related to a decline in the pool of available workers, affecting the number of unemployed.
Turning back to payroll data, growth in recent months has been on a slowing trend. Private payrolls gained 126,000, following an increase of 161,000 in August (originally 152,000). The median forecast was for a 184,000 rise.
Goods-producing jobs improved to a gain of 26,000 in September from a rise of 18,000 the prior month. Strength was in construction which jumped 20,000 while mining rose 3,000 and manufacturing edged up 2,000 (sector data are rounded).
Private service-providing jobs increased 100,000 in September after a 143,000 rise in August. The September advance was led by professional and business services (up 32,000), retail trade (up 21,000), and professional & business services (up 32,000). On a negative note, leisure and hospitality fell 13,000 while financial services dipped 2,000. The weakness in leisure and hospitality suggests a cutback in discretionary spending by the consumer.
Government jobs rose 22,000 in September after gaining 21,000 in August.
Wage growth eased in September, rising only 0.1 percent for average hourly earnings, following 0.2 percent the month before. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours, matching the consensus projection.
Details about the decline in the unemployment rate confirm the view of many at the Fed that it is not necessarily the best view of the labor market. The labor force rebounded 73,000 after dropping 312,000 in August. Household employment rebounded 133,000 after falling 115,000 in August while the number of unemployed dipped 61,000, following a 198,000 drop in August. However, the pool of available workers fell another 183,000 after a plunge of 532,000 in August-resulting in the fourth decline in a row. Again, a low labor force participation rate is at least partly behind the easing unemployment rate.
On the news, equity futures rose modestly even though payrolls fell below expectations. Markets apparently see the numbers leading to the Fed continuing to postpone taper of asset purchases.
|
Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in August gained 169,000, following a revised increase of 104,000 for July (originally up 162,000) and after a revised advance of 172,000 for June (previous estimate was 188,000). The market median forecast was for a 175,000 gain for August. The net revisions for June and July were down 74,000. Private payrolls rose 152,000, following a gain of 127,000 in July (originally 161,000). Wage growth improved. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent in August after no change the month before. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek was up slightly to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in July. Analysts forecast 34.5 hours. The unemployment rate dipped to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent in July. However, the unemployment rate fell for the wrong reason. Turning to detail for the household survey, household employment in August fell 115,000 after jumping 227,000 in July. The labor force dropped 312,000, following a 37,000 dip in July. The number of unemployed declined 198,000 after a drop of 263,000 in July. Essentially, declining labor force participation is at least partly behind the easing in the unemployment rate. The soft labor market has led to a greater number of discouraged workers.
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| Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers. Why Investors Care |
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![[Chart]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_tOw2uof6njIMba2QgfE4ChWNxamOjN-abR5COB3lDd22-LlYvaNqsbCyA68w9IFEjT2wFxtbVgou0R3LqYVSN0IM4XSKBfMil4pJNLYgcnoHFAIQQbFw=s0-d) |
| During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics |
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![[Chart]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_ttFONFeprdcuvHmKNYtXcz7tY0La35K44RHFQB5fN1LSJm8WjLb5pjMzd7OLumNbjOIcGyzv7wiPJo4VXnJxvI-JXGo60bNesMgrEWX9Oa2E_DjZP3Qg=s0-d) |
| The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics |
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