GDP revision

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461149&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

GDP

Released On 12/23/2014 8:30:00 AM For Q3f:2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR 3.9 % 3.9 % 4.3 % 4.0 % to 4.5 % 5.0 % GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % to 1.4 % 1.4 %

Highlights Third-quarter GDP was revised sharply higher to plus 5.0 percent for the strongest rate since way back in third-quarter 2003. Today's second revision, up 1.1 percentage points from the first revision and compared to plus 4.6 percent for the second quarter, reflects gains for health care, recreation, financial services, and software. Final sales were also revised sharply higher, to plus 5.0 vs a prior reading of 4.1 percent. GDP prices remain soft at plus 1.4 percent in a reading that is likely to ebb further given this quarter's drop in oil prices. Today's results point to unexpectedly strong economic momentum going into the current quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator GDP grew 3.9 percent in the third quarter versus the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. Growth still decelerated from the second quarter weather rebound of 4.6 percent annualized. With the second estimate for the third quarter, private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated, and both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more. In contrast, exports increased less than previously estimated. On the price front, the chain-weighted price index was revised up marginally to 1.4 percent, compared to the advance estimate of 1.3 percent annualized from 2.1 percent in the second quarter. The core chain index, excluding food and energy, eased to 1.7 percent but was slightly higher than the initial estimate of 1.6 percent.

Definition Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care

Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable. Data Source: Haver Analytics

It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Oil industry: fracking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uti2niW2BRA

Economic data website from Federal Reserve

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

Data for North Carolina:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/27315

Maps:
Average Hourly Earnings in Private Sector:
http://geofred.stlouisfed.org/map/?th=pubugn&cc=5&rc=false&im=fractile&lng=-90&lat=40&zm=4&sl&sv&dth=0a623eb20a3109cabfd9c50b367d2558&rt=state&undefined&at=Not%20Seasonally%20Adjusted,%20Annual,%20Dollars%20per%20Hour&fq=Annual&am=Average&un=lin&dt=2013-01-01

Gas prices - OPEC in price war with US producers

http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/28/investing/opec-oil-price-us-shale/index.html

OPEC's message to US shale: Drop dead

By Matt Egan   @mattmegan5 November 28, 2014: 2:35 PM ET

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OPEC just fired a shot at the U.S. shale industry.

Despite tumbling prices -- the lowest since 2010 -- the cartel surprised the energy industry by deciding to keep pumping oil at current levels. One motivation is to squeeze higher-cost producers in North America, including the booming U.S. shale industry that has reshaped the global energy landscape.

It's a move Tony Soprano would be proud of. OPEC is betting lower oil prices will force U.S. producers to throw up the white flag and cut back on production because they won't be able to turn a profit.
"The gauntlet has been thrown down for Western Hemisphere producers like Brazil, Canada and the United States," Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
Related: Nightmare for oil stocks
Dot-com bust all over again? The fear is that OPEC's hard line could cause a pull back in the U.S. shale industry, sparking job losses and causing panic in the financial markets.
That's what Russian oil tycoon Leonid Fedun is predicting, although Russia isn't part of OPEC.
"The shale boom is on par with the dot-com boom. The strong players will remain, the weak ones will vanish," he told Bloomberg News on Thursday.
The OPEC move has clearly spooked investors, who sent energy stocks like Halliburton (HAL), Helmerich & Payne (HP) and Schlumberger (SLB) plummeting on Friday. (U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday).

"I think there will be increased scrutiny of the balance sheets of the exploration and production companies. You'll see some of the weaker players fall out," said Tamar Essner, energy analyst at Nasdaq Advisory Services.
Related: The real Black Friday deal: cheap gas
Credit stress ahead: That scrutiny forced SeaDrill Limited (SDRL) to suspend its dividend earlier this week, causing the offshore drilling contractor's stock to plummet 23%.
Essner "absolutely" expects more drillers and oil servicing companies to cut or even suspend dividends. Bespoke's baseline scenario calls for dividend suspensions and bond defaults among more "marginal" named producers.
Many troubled shale companies will be able to avoid bankruptcy by selling acreage to boost cash flows though, said Per Magnus Nysveen, head of analysis at Rystad Energy.
No crash just yet: While financial stress could be looming for shale oil producers, experts aren't forecasting a complete meltdown.
"I don't think this will spell the death knell of the U.S. shale industry. Time and again this industry has proved very resilient," Essner said.
Nysveen said the breakeven crude oil price for U.S. shale producers is around $50 or $55. Despite the recent plunge, oil is still well above that at the $70 range.
Those crucial breakeven points have been trending lower and lower in recent years thanks to technological advances that have made oil producers dramatically more efficient.
"U.S. production is much more competitive than 30 years ago," Nysveen said.

First Published: November 28, 2014: 1:09 PM ET

American - US Airways merger, 2013

Controversy
http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/13/us/airline-merger-antitrust-lawsuit/index.html

Merged airline and settlement:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Group

List of airline margers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airline_mergers_and_acquisitions

Industrial production

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461304&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Industrial Production

Released On 11/17/2014 9:15:00 AM For Oct, 2014 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Production - M/M change 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.2 % -0.1 % to 0.4 % -0.1 % Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 79.3 % 79.2 % 79.3 % 79.0 % to 79.4 % 78.9 % Manufacturing - M/M 0.5 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % 0.2 %

Highlights Industrial production for October slipped on comedowns in mining and utilities. Industrial production dipped 0.1 percent after jumping 0.8 percent in September. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent gain. Manufacturing gained 0.2 percent after rebounding 0.2 percent in September. Expectations for the manufacturing component were for an increase of 0.3 percent. Mining declined 0.9 percent in October, following a 1.6 percent boost the month before. Utilities slipped 0.7 percent after a monthly 4.2 percent surge in September. The production of nondurable goods rose 0.3 percent and the production of durable goods edged up 0.1 percent. Among durable goods industries, machinery posted the largest increase, 1.3 percent, while wood products, computers and electronic products, and furniture and related products all recorded gains of more than 1/2 percent. These gains were partially offset by declines of more than 1 percent in the indexes for nonmetallic mineral products and for motor vehicles and parts. The decline in motor vehicles and parts resulted from a decrease in vehicle assemblies, which fell 400,000 units to an annual rate of 11.1 million. Production increased for most nondurable goods industries, with the largest advances recorded by chemicals and by plastics and rubber products; only the paper industry registered a decline. Overall capacity utilization posted at 78.9 percent in October versus 79.2 percent in September. The notable detail in today's report is that manufacturing remains on a moderate uptrend.

Recent History Of This Indicator Industrial production jumped an outsized 1.0 percent in September after a decline of 0.2 percent in August. Forecasts were for 0.4 percent. Yes, utilities were the big mover, spiking a monthly 3.9 percent, following a 1.2 percent gain the prior month. But manufacturing was solid, rebounding 0.5 percent in September after a 0.5 percent decline the month before. Mining advanced 1.8 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase in August. Overall capacity utilization jumped to 79.3 percent from 78.7 percent in August. Manufacturing appears to have regained some steam for the U.S. economy. The third quarter still appears likely to post moderately healthy growth.

Definition The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial sector, together with construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the course of the business cycle. The production index measures real output and is expressed as a percentage of real output in a base year, currently 2007. The capacity index, which is an estimate of sustainable potential output, is also expressed as a percentage of actual output in 2007. The rate of capacity utilization equals the seasonally adjusted output index expressed as a percentage of the related capacity index.  Why Investors Care

The industrial sector accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP. Yet, it creates much of the cyclical variability in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation's factories, mines and utilities. In the past, supply bottlenecks created inflationary pressures as the utilization rate hit 84 to 85 percent. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Beyond The Unemployment Rate: Look At These 5 Labor Indicators

http://www.npr.org/2014/11/07/362351935/forget-the-unemployment-rate-look-at-these-5-economic-indicators

Beyond The Unemployment Rate: Look At These 5 Labor Indicators

November 07, 2014 4:19 PM ET

SONARI GLINTON

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Job hunters line up for interviews at an employment fair in New York City. The unemployment rate tells only a partial story about the U.S. labor market.

Mark Lennihan/AP

The unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since July 2008 — to 5.8 percent — the Labor Department said Friday. And October marks the ninth month in a row that job growth has exceeded 200,000.

But if you ask Americans about the economy, they're still mostly not impressed.

The headline unemployment rate and payroll numbers are just one piece of the labor picture. But if you add in other numbers, you can get a fuller view of the labor market.

Here are five key underlying numbers economists are closely watching for signs of improvement:

The first is wages. Linda Barrington, executive director of the Institute for Compensation Studies at Cornell University, says they've been inching up, barely.

"Wages and inflation are sort of going hand in hand and have been since the recession, so people aren't feeling like they're getting ahead, even if they have a job," she says.

Your Money

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Part of the reason that wages aren't going up is that there are just so many underemployed people. As long as there are large numbers of applicants for each available job, employers won't feel the pressure to boost wages.

Barrington says the next key number — the long-term unemployment rate — is still high.

"You know, when you see the longer-term unemployment numbers, those are people who have not given up, who continue to look for work, who want to work," she says. "But for some reason an employer isn't seeing what they're bringing as valuable enough to hire them."

Those are the people who are hanging in there. Then there are the people who've just given up. They aren't even a part of the jobs picture. That brings up the labor force participation rate,which Juli Niemann, an analyst with Smith Moore & Co. in St. Louis, says is also a problem.

"A lot of people are giving up," she says. "They're not even in the numbers; they're not in the count. They've been looking for jobs for so long and can't find the jobs that they're simply not even trying anymore. And that is why you see this [unemployment rate] number below 6 percent looking better than it really is."

Niemann says there have also been structural changes in the economy — especially in manufacturing. Many people have been replaced by technology, and workers are a lot more productive.

"We do more, better for less, so they can't go back to jobs similar to what they had previously nor can they find them out there," Niemann says.

Another important number gets at why people aren't feeling so great about the economy despite the solid job growth. It's what's called the quit rate, which is essentially the rate at which people are quitting their jobs.

The quit rate is still relatively low. Economist Tara Sinclair, with the jobs website Indeed, says we actually want more people quitting their jobs.

"The reason it's a good thing for people to be quitting their job is because that suggests that they're optimistic about their labor market choices," she says.

Economy

Drop In Unemployment Raises Debate On Optimal Rate

And there's the number of people who have part-time jobs but would rather be working full time.

"That number is still very elevated, which suggests that even though the employment numbers look pretty good, if people aren't getting the type of job that they want there's still room for improvement," Sinclair says.

Nevertheless, economists consider the headline number good news.

Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at Standard and Poor's, says we sometimes forget that 9 million people lost their jobs in the recession and it took a long time to get them back.

"I know we've still got further to go," she says. "I'd love to open that bottle of champagne, but I don't want to do it too quick. But I have to say every time I see 200,000-plus job gains, I feel like we're making one step ahead."

When these underlying numbers get significantly better, that's when people finally start to feel better about the economy.

Productivity

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461239&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Productivity and Costs

Released On 11/6/2014 8:30:00 AM For Q3:14 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR 2.3 % 2.9 % 1.5 % 0.3 % to 1.9 % 2.0 % Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR -0.1 % -0.5 % 0.8 % 0.0 % to 2.2 % 0.3 %

Highlights Nonfarm productivity growth for the third quarter advanced an annualized 2.0 percent, following a 2.9 percent boost in the second quarter. Unit labor costs nudged up 0.3 percent after falling an annualized 0.5 percent in the second quarter. Output growth slowed to 4.4 percent in the second quarter, following a 5.5 percent jump the prior quarter. Compensation growth held steady at a pace of 2.3 percent. Year-on-year, productivity was up 0.9 percent in the third quarter, down from 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs were up 2.4 percent, compared to up 1.5 percent in the second quarter.

Recent History Of This Indicator Nonfarm business productivity for the second quarter was nudged down to a 2.3 percent annualized gain after falling 4.5 percent in the first quarter. But unit labor costs also were bumped down to minus 0.1 percent, following an 11.6 percent annualized surge in the first quarter. First quarter numbers were heavily affected by atypically harsh winter weather. Output rebounded 5.0 percent after dipping 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Compensation growth decelerated to 2.3 percent from 6.6 percent in the first quarter. Based on deceleration in third quarter GDP growth from the second quarter weather rebound, third quarter productivity is likely to ease and labor costs firm from the second quarter.

Definition Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy's goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends.  Why Investors Care

Nonfarm productivity growth has remained healthy during this expansion, but it has prevented employment from growing very fast and this hurt income growth to some extent. Unit labor costs tend to fall when productivity growth accelerates and then rises as productivity growth abates. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Federal reserve ends Quantitative Easing

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102132961

Fed completes the taper

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom

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The Federal Reserve ended its historic easing program Wednesday, ceasing the final $15 billion of monthly bond purchases it had made in an effort to keep the economic recovery going, in a statement that kindled market talk about a more hawkish central bank.

Though it ended the program, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the "considerable period of time" language that investors had considered crucial in the central bank's map for when it would raise interest rates. The "considerable" time refers to when the Fed will begin raising rates after the end of the monthly bond buying.

To that end, it said it would keep its short-term target funds rate anchored near zero until it sees more improvement from the economy.

But it also noted significant economic gains, expressed some doubt that low inflation would continue and struck a tone that some anticipated as a tip toward those on the committee who advocated the Fed start to consider tightening policy.

After some meandering stocks ultimately sold off after the statement. Interest rates moved higher as did the U.S. dollar.

"The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored," the statement said, in language that closely reflected pronouncements at previous meetings.

Other parts of the statement were new, though, and generated more talk than usual about when the Fed might change policy course.

Read MoreWhy the market is losing its faith in the Fed

"While the Fed did maintain its promise to keep rates low for a considerable time after this meeting, the rest of the statement sounds positive about the economy and thus reads more hawkishly from a market perspective," Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG, said in a note. "While we're a bit surprised the Fed chose to move in a hawkish direction without an accompanying press conference, the fact remains that the U.S. economic expansion is continuing, the labor market is improving and general conditions are better today than they were say one year ago. If that's the case, then why shouldn't the Fed speak more optimistically?

"The Federal Reserve has done a fantastic job of communicating what their plan is," Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors, said in a phone interview. "They are on track to begin policy normalization in the middle of next year, which is what they've talked about. They remain steadfast that they're going to rely on data to do that."

Read MoreHere's what changed in the latest Fed statement

One area that drew some interest and departed from recent Fed statements was a somewhat more hawkish tone on inflation, which has been held in check by lower energy prices.

"Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year," the statement said.

The FOMC also said there has been "substantial improvement" in the jobs outlook and "underlying strength in the broader economy," which helped provide the impetus to "conclude its asset purchase program this month." The quantitative easing program had swelled the Fed's balance sheet past the $4.5 trillion mark in what the market colloquially calls "money printing."

The statement was approved with only one dissent, from Minneapolis'Narayana Kocherlakota, who advocated keeping QE in place until inflation breached 2 percent.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A U.S. flag flies on top of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C.

In recent months the Fed has equivocated as to what it would take to raise rates. Initially, the FOMC had set 6.5 percent unemployment and 2.5 percent inflation as benchmarks.

But unemployment has slid to 5.9 percent, while inflation, as reflected through the Fed's favorite measure, remains well below 2 percent.

In response, Fed officials have said the decision on rates would be "data dependent," though they haven't been specific about which data and what levels would generate a change in policy.

Read MoreQE3 ends: The best of Finance Twitter

"The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run," the FOMC said in language that, again, mirrored past statements.

When instituting what has become known as QE3, the Fed also said it was an "open-ended" program, meaning that unlike its two predecessors there was no calendar date provided for when it would end.

There was no mention in the statement about what it would take to restart the asset purchase program, but the possibility is likely to stay near in investors' minds.

"Let's say it was suspended rather than ended," Michael Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.